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Hurricane Milton Forecast Discussion Number 19
2024-10-09 22:56:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 092056 TCDAT4 Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 500 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 WSR-88D radar images from Tampa and Key West show that Milton is a sheared hurricane, with the heaviest precipitation to the north of the center, and the eye open on the south side. This structure was confirmed by a recent Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission, where the eyewall was reported open to the southwest. The plane reported that the pressure has risen during the past few hours, with the latest center drop supporting a minimum pressure of 948 mb. Based on this pressure, and the reduction of measured flight-level winds, the intensity is estimated to be 105 kt. The highest Doppler velocities from the Tampa radar have been between 100 and 105 kt. Milton's recent motion has been northeastward (035 degrees) at about 15 kt. Track model guidance continues to insist that the hurricane will slow down a bit and turn more to the right very soon, taking the center near or just south of Tampa Bay later this evening. Milton's center is then expected to cross central Florida and turn east-northeastward as it emerges over the western Atlantic. Milton is likely to be right near the threshold of a major hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of Florida this evening. Milton has grown in size today, particularly in the extent of 34- and 50-kt winds to the northwest of the center, and the northern eyewall appears most severe at the moment due to southwesterly shear. As a result, significant wind impacts are likely to occur north of the center, as well as to the south, regardless of the exact intensity at landfall. There will likely be a noticeable gradient of surge heights to the north of the landfall location, however, the risk of devastating storm surge still exists across much of the west-central and southwest coast of Florida given the size of the storm. Earlier scatterometer data suggested that Milton is already beginning to interact with a frontal boundary, and global model guidance suggests that the cyclone will become extratropical in about 36 hours over the western Atlantic. This is reflected in the new NHC forecast. Key Messages: 1. A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest inundations of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula. Near the coast the surge will be accompanied by damaging waves. Water levels will rise rapidly as the eye approaches, and strong onshore winds on the backside of the hurricane will also cause a rapid rise in water as the center makes landfall. 2. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the west coast of Florida within the Hurricane Warning area. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across the peninsula and to portions of the Florida east coast within the Hurricane Warning area tonight and early Thursday. Residents should be prepared to take shelter in an interior room, away from windows, as the core of the hurricane moves across the central Florida Peninsula. 3. The risk of strong tornadoes will continue into the evening hours across the southern and central portions of the Florida Peninsula. Be prepared to take immediate shelter in an interior room if a Tornado Warning is issued for your area. 4. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the overall flood threat. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 26.9N 83.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 28.0N 81.8W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND 24H 10/1800Z 28.9N 79.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 11/0600Z 29.2N 76.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 11/1800Z 29.3N 73.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 12/0600Z 29.4N 70.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 12/1800Z 29.9N 67.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 13/1800Z 31.2N 61.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 14/1800Z 33.1N 55.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Milton Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2024-10-09 22:56:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Wed, 09 Oct 2024 20:56:15 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Milton Public Advisory Number 19
2024-10-09 22:56:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 092055 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 500 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 ...MILTON APPROACHING THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.9N 83.4W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM WSW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch north of the Savannah River to Edisto Beach South Carolina has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Hurricane Watches for the Dry Tortugas, the Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Marys River, and for the Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach have been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Watch north of Edisto Beach has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Yankeetown, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay * Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the St. Johns River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lake Okeechobee * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Palm Beach/Martin County Line A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach * Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass * Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Flamingo * North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Edisto Beach South Carolina * Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 83.4 West. Milton is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast is expected on Thursday, followed by a turn toward the east on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will make landfall near or just south of the Tampa Bay region this evening, move across the central part of the Florida peninsula overnight, and emerge off the east coast of Florida on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Milton could still be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast of west-central Florida this evening, and it will remain a hurricane while it moves across central Florida through Thursday. Milton is forecast to weaken over the western Atlantic and become extratropical by Thursday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). A WeatherFlow site located in Egmont Channel (XEGM) recently reported a sustained wind speed of 51 mph (82 km/h) with a wind gust of 63 mph (102 km/h). A WeatherFlow site located on the Sunshine Skyway Fishing Pier (XSKY) recently reported a sustained wind speed of 47 mph (76 km/h) with a wind gust of 62 mph (100 km/h). The minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data is 948 mb (28.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anna Maria Island, FL to Boca Grande, FL...9-13 ft Anclote River, FL to Anna Maria Island, FL...6-9 ft Tampa Bay...6-9 ft Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...2-4 ft Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft St. Johns River...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with localized totals up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area across Florida this evening through Thursday morning and are possible in the hurricane watch area tonight and on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are occurring along the west coast of Florida and are forecast to spread across the peninsula and reach the east coast this evening or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area along the Georgia and South Carolina coast on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday. TORNADOES: Several tornadoes, possibly including a few strong tornadoes, are likely this afternoon and tonight across parts of central and southern Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast and will increase along the southeastern U.S. coast during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
Category: Transportation and Logistics