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Hurricane Milton Graphics
2024-10-09 22:57:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 09 Oct 2024 20:57:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 09 Oct 2024 21:28:54 GMT
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Milton Forecast Discussion Number 19
2024-10-09 22:56:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 092056 TCDAT4 Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 500 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 WSR-88D radar images from Tampa and Key West show that Milton is a sheared hurricane, with the heaviest precipitation to the north of the center, and the eye open on the south side. This structure was confirmed by a recent Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission, where the eyewall was reported open to the southwest. The plane reported that the pressure has risen during the past few hours, with the latest center drop supporting a minimum pressure of 948 mb. Based on this pressure, and the reduction of measured flight-level winds, the intensity is estimated to be 105 kt. The highest Doppler velocities from the Tampa radar have been between 100 and 105 kt. Milton's recent motion has been northeastward (035 degrees) at about 15 kt. Track model guidance continues to insist that the hurricane will slow down a bit and turn more to the right very soon, taking the center near or just south of Tampa Bay later this evening. Milton's center is then expected to cross central Florida and turn east-northeastward as it emerges over the western Atlantic. Milton is likely to be right near the threshold of a major hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of Florida this evening. Milton has grown in size today, particularly in the extent of 34- and 50-kt winds to the northwest of the center, and the northern eyewall appears most severe at the moment due to southwesterly shear. As a result, significant wind impacts are likely to occur north of the center, as well as to the south, regardless of the exact intensity at landfall. There will likely be a noticeable gradient of surge heights to the north of the landfall location, however, the risk of devastating storm surge still exists across much of the west-central and southwest coast of Florida given the size of the storm. Earlier scatterometer data suggested that Milton is already beginning to interact with a frontal boundary, and global model guidance suggests that the cyclone will become extratropical in about 36 hours over the western Atlantic. This is reflected in the new NHC forecast. Key Messages: 1. A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest inundations of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula. Near the coast the surge will be accompanied by damaging waves. Water levels will rise rapidly as the eye approaches, and strong onshore winds on the backside of the hurricane will also cause a rapid rise in water as the center makes landfall. 2. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the west coast of Florida within the Hurricane Warning area. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across the peninsula and to portions of the Florida east coast within the Hurricane Warning area tonight and early Thursday. Residents should be prepared to take shelter in an interior room, away from windows, as the core of the hurricane moves across the central Florida Peninsula. 3. The risk of strong tornadoes will continue into the evening hours across the southern and central portions of the Florida Peninsula. Be prepared to take immediate shelter in an interior room if a Tornado Warning is issued for your area. 4. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the overall flood threat. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 26.9N 83.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 28.0N 81.8W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND 24H 10/1800Z 28.9N 79.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 11/0600Z 29.2N 76.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 11/1800Z 29.3N 73.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 12/0600Z 29.4N 70.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 12/1800Z 29.9N 67.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 13/1800Z 31.2N 61.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 14/1800Z 33.1N 55.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Milton Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2024-10-09 22:56:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 092056 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MILTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 2100 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MILTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLESTON SC 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAVANNAH GA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 23 8(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) WAYCROSS GA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 38 12(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) JACKSONVILLE 34 18 8(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) GAINESVILLE FL 34 89 1(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) DAYTONA BEACH 34 94 5(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) DAYTONA BEACH 50 4 17(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) THE VILLAGES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) THE VILLAGES 50 31 7(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) ORLANDO FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ORLANDO FL 50 48 33(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) ORLANDO FL 64 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COCOA BEACH FL 34 95 5(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COCOA BEACH FL 50 16 67(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) COCOA BEACH FL 64 1 26(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) PATRICK AFB 34 96 4(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PATRICK AFB 50 17 66(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) PATRICK AFB 64 1 27(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) FT PIERCE FL 34 86 8(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) FT PIERCE FL 50 6 17(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) FT PIERCE FL 64 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 69 5(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) W PALM BEACH 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT LAUDERDALE 34 52 2(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) MIAMI FL 34 12 1(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 6 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MARATHON FL 34 6 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) KEY WEST FL 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NAPLES FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NAPLES FL 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT MYERS FL 50 13 X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) VENICE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VENICE FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VENICE FL 64 84 X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) TAMPA FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TAMPA FL 50 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TAMPA FL 64 41 X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) CEDAR KEY FL 34 99 X(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CEDAR KEY FL 50 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 10 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 290N 850W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PANAMA CITY FL 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ALBANY GA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 16 20(36) 2(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 2 5( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ANDROS 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Category: Transportation and Logistics