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Hurricane Milton Public Advisory Number 15
2024-10-08 22:53:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 082053 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 ...MILTON BACK TO CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH... ...FLORIDA RESIDENTS SHOULD GET THEIR FAMILIES AND HOMES READY AND EVACUATE IF TOLD TO DO SO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 87.5W ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...918 MB...27.11 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning along the U.S. east coast has been extended southward to Sebastian Inlet, Florida, and northward to Altamaha Sound, Georgia. The Hurricane Warning along the east coast of Florida has been extended southward to the St. Lucie/Martin County Line. The Tropical Storm Warning along the U.S. east coast has been extended northward to Altamaha Sound, Georgia. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Palm Beach/Martin County Line. The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini. The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning from Celestun to west of Dzilam, has changed the Hurricane Warning from Dzilam to Rio Lagartos to a Tropical Storm Warning, and has discontinued the Hurricane Watch from Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay * Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the St. Johns River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South Carolina A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach * Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Marys River * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Palm Beach/Martin County Line A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dzilam to Cancun Mexico * Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach * Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass * Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Flamingo * North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia * Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 87.5 West. Milton wobbled earlier today, but the longer-term motion is toward the east-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected to begin tonight and continue through early Thursday. A turn toward the east-northeast and east is expected on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through Wednesday, make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida Wednesday night, and move off the east coast of Florida over the Atlantic Ocean on Thursday. Satellite images indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 165 mph (270 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are likely while Milton moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, but Milton is expected to be a dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of Florida Wednesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 918 mb (27.11 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...10-15 ft Tampa Bay...10-15 ft Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft Yankeetown, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...3-5 ft Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft St. Johns River...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with localized totals up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals around 6 inches, are expected across northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue in the warning areas in Mexico this evening. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area across Florida beginning late Wednesday through early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the west coast of Florida around midday Wednesday, spreading across the peninsula and reaching the east coast Wednesday evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the extreme northwestern Bahamas on Thursday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and southern Florida beginning late tonight and continuing through early Thursday morning. SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Milton Forecast Advisory Number 15
2024-10-08 22:53:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024 884 WTNT24 KNHC 082053 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 2100 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 87.5W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 918 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 145 KT WITH GUSTS TO 175 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 80SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 87.5W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 88.1W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.8N 86.4W MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.6N 84.7W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 130SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.2N 82.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...230NE 140SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 28.1N 80.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...240NE 150SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 28.6N 77.9W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 90NW. 34 KT...270NE 150SE 150SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.0N 75.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...180NE 130SE 130SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 30.6N 68.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 120SW 100NW. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 31.8N 60.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 87.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 09/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Leslie Graphics
2024-10-08 22:34:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 08 Oct 2024 20:34:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 08 Oct 2024 20:34:38 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics