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Hurricane Milton Public Advisory Number 5A
2024-10-06 19:52:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 061748 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 100 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING INTO A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.5N 94.0W ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 815 MI...1310 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Celestun to Cabo Catoche A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Cabo Catoche to Cancun A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches could be required for portions of Florida late today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 94.0 West. Milton is moving toward the east near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected today. An eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast on Monday, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move north of the Yucatan Peninsula and to move across the Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is forecast to rapidly intensify during the next couple of days and become a major hurricane on Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 20 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches) based on Air Force dropsonde data. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Hurricane Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 8 inches, with localized totals up to 12 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of locally considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with widespread minor to moderate river flooding with major flooding possible. Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula Monday night and Tuesday and possible in the watch area on Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by the system are affecting the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by early next week, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Minor coastal flooding could also occur along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from large swells. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-10-06 19:48:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 061748 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Kirk, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, on Hurricane Leslie, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean, and on recently upgraded Hurricane Milton, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in a few days. Some development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. The system is expected to move near or over the Cabo Verde Islands on Wednesday and Thursday, and interests there should monitor its progress. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-10-06 19:32:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 061732 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sun Oct 6 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Offshore of Southwestern Mexico: Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased today in association with a broad area of low pressure located about 150 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, the disturbance could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics