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Hurricane Milton Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2024-10-07 10:57:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 070857 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MILTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 0900 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MILTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 11(34) X(34) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 13(41) X(41) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) X(14) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 8(23) X(23) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 7(35) X(35) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 12(46) X(46) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17) X(17) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 42(43) 7(50) X(50) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 2(21) X(21) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 47(48) 9(57) X(57) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 3(21) X(21) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 57(58) 12(70) 1(71) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 10(36) X(36) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) X(14) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 58(59) 11(70) 1(71) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 10(36) X(36) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) X(14) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 52(54) 10(64) X(64) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 6(27) X(27) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 45(47) 6(53) X(53) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 3(16) X(16) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 41(43) 3(46) X(46) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 2(23) X(23) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 1(21) X(21) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 30(38) 1(39) X(39) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 32(45) 1(46) X(46) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 61(72) 2(74) X(74) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 34(35) 1(36) X(36) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 1(18) X(18) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 55(60) 2(62) X(62) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 1(31) X(31) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 74(86) 1(87) X(87) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 55(56) 2(58) X(58) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 1(36) X(36) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 71(77) 4(81) X(81) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 48(48) 2(50) X(50) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 2(30) X(30) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 50(53) 5(58) X(58) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 4(28) X(28) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) X(15) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) X(14) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 2(24) X(24) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 30(34) 1(35) X(35) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 1(16) X(16) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) X(14) X(14) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MERIDA MX 34 6 61(67) 2(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) MERIDA MX 50 X 16(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) MERIDA MX 64 X 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) COZUMEL MX 34 1 5( 6) 17(23) 3(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) COZUMEL MX 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 9(35) 1(36) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 2( 2) 23(25) 17(42) 2(44) X(44) X(44) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Category:Transportation and Logistics
LATEST NEWS
Summary for Hurricane Milton (AT4/AL142024)
2024-10-07 10:57:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MILTON STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA... As of 4:00 AM CDT Mon Oct 7 the center of Milton was located near 22.1, -92.6 with movement ESE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Milton Public Advisory Number 8
2024-10-07 10:57:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 070857 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 400 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 ...MILTON STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.1N 92.6W ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Celestun to Rio Lagartos. A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for the Gulf coast of Florida from Chokoloskee northward to the mouth of the Suwanee River, including Tampa Bay, and the Dry Tortugas. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Florida Gulf Coast from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Florida Gulf Coast west of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass, and south of Chokoloskee to Flamingo. A Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued for the Lower, Middle, and Upper Florida Keys, including Florida Bay SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Celestun to Rio Lagartos A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche * Florida Gulf coast from Chokoloskee to the mouth of the Suwanee River, including Tampa Bay * Dry Tortugas A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Florida Gulf coast from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Rio Lagartos to Cancun A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Florida Gulf coast from Flamingo to south of Chokoloskee * Florida Gulf coast north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass * Lower, Middle, and Upper Florida Keys, including Florida Bay A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be issued later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 92.6 West. Milton is moving toward the east-southeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). An eastward to east-southeastward motion is forecast through tonight, followed by a turn toward the east and northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move near or just north of the Yucatan Peninsula today and Tuesday, then cross the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are now near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is forecast to intensify rapidly and become a major hurricane later today. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Hurricane Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...8-12 ft Tampa Bay...8-12 ft Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...5-10 ft Charlotte Harbor...5-10 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding. Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula.. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in Mexico beginning late today or tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin as early as this morning. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area in Mexico beginning tonight and Tuesday, and tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning later today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area in Florida on Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area on Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by the system are affecting the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Category: Transportation and Logistics