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Hurricane Oscar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2024-10-19 19:54:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1800 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024 000 FONT11 KNHC 191754 PWSAT1 HURRICANE OSCAR SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 1800 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024 AT 1800Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) X(10) ANDROS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 7(13) 2(15) X(15) GREAT EXUMA 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) 22(34) 5(39) X(39) GREAT EXUMA 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) SAN SALVADOR 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 13(21) 10(31) X(31) SAN SALVADOR 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) MAYAGUANA 34 9 36(45) 2(47) X(47) 4(51) 4(55) X(55) MAYAGUANA 50 1 11(12) 2(14) X(14) 1(15) 1(16) X(16) MAYAGUANA 64 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND TURK 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND TURK 50 95 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) GRAND TURK 64 27 2(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 8( 8) 28(36) 8(44) 4(48) X(48) X(48) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MONTEGO BAY 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) KINGSTON 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LES CAYES 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAPE BEATA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PUERTO PLATA 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Nadine Graphics
2024-10-19 19:40:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2024 17:40:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2024 15:22:43 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Nadine Public Advisory Number 4A
2024-10-19 19:40:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 191740 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nadine Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024 100 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 ...NADINE MOVING INLAND ACROSS BELIZE... ...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER PARTS OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 88.5W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM WNW OF BELIZE CITY ABOUT 65 MI...140 KM SSW OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Belize City, Belize to Cancun, Mexico, including Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nadine was located inland near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 88.5 West. Nadine is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A faster westward motion is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, Nadine is expected to move across Belize, northern Guatemala, and southern Mexico through Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected, and Nadine will likely dissipate by late Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nadine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml RAINFALL: Widespread 4 to 8 inch rainfall amounts are expected with Nadine across northern Belize, northern Guatemala, and southern Mexican states from Quintana Roo westward to Veracruz. Isolated areas of amounts exceeding 12 inches are also possible through late Tuesday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Nadine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through this afternoon. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds near and to the north of where the center moves inland. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics