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Hurricane Oscar Forecast Discussion Number 5
2024-10-20 10:44:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 200844 TCDAT1 Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 500 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Animation of 1-minute GOES infrared satellite images indicates that Oscar's center has made landfall on the eastern side of Great Inagua Island in the southeastern Bahamas. Small convective bursts have occasionally been noted close to the center during the overnight hours, suggesting that the hurricane still has a very tight inner core. Overall, the satellite presentation is not quite as well organized as it was yesterday afternoon, and with the small core now over Great Inagua, the estimated intensity is lowered slightly to 70 kt--albeit with a very large error bar. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled to investigate Oscar in a few hours. Oscar is moving south of due west (260 degrees), still at about 10 kt. Due to strong mid-level ridging to the north and west, Oscar is forecast to turn west-southwestward this morning, which will bring the center to the coast of northeastern Cuba later this afternoon. The ridge is expected to be replaced by a developing mid- to upper-level trough over the western Atlantic in 24-48 hours, which should cause Oscar to turn westward and then northward while inland over Cuba on Monday. Oscar is then forecast to accelerate northeastward over the central Bahamas on Tuesday ahead of the trough. The NHC track forecast is very close to the HCCA consensus aid for the first 36 hours of the forecast, and then more closely follows a blend of HCCA with TVCA after that time. This forecast is not too different from the previous prediction. Oscar's small size will continue to make it susceptible to intensity fluctuations, but the cyclone is expected to reach northeastern Cuba as a hurricane later this afternoon. That small size will also make the core vulnerable to being heavily disrupted by the terrain of eastern Cuba, which rises several thousand feet above sea level. Because of this, the GFS and ECMWF global fields in particular show Oscar's circulation becoming less compact and less well defined in about 36 hours. Oscar is forecast to weaken over Cuba, but it could still be a tropical storm when it emerges back over the Atlantic and moves across the central Bahamas in 2-3 days. Alternatively, it's also possible the Oscar could degenerate into a remnant low or dissipate entirely while over eastern Cuba. If Oscar does survive Cuba, it is likely to be absorbed by a larger non-tropical area of low pressure over the western Atlantic, and the new NHC forecast therefore shows dissipation by day 4. Key Messages: 1. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the southeastern Bahamas and for a portion of the northeastern coast of Cuba. 2. Oscar is expected to produce a dangerous storm surge on portions of the southeastern Bahamas this morning, especially Great Inagua Island, and along the north shore of Cuba later this afternoon and evening. 3. Heavy rainfall from Oscar will lead to areas of flash flooding along with possible mudslides across portions of eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra, through Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 21.1N 73.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 20.6N 74.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 20.4N 75.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 36H 21/1800Z 20.8N 76.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 22/0600Z 21.7N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 22/1800Z 22.7N 75.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 23.8N 74.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Hurricane Oscar (AT1/AL162024)
2024-10-20 10:44:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OSCAR MAKES LANDFALL ON GREAT INAGUA ISLAND... ...EXPECTED TO REACH GUANTANAMO OR HOLGUIN CUBA AS A HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON... As of 5:00 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 the center of Oscar was located near 21.1, -73.1 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Oscar Public Advisory Number 5
2024-10-20 10:44:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 200844 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 500 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 ...OSCAR MAKES LANDFALL ON GREAT INAGUA ISLAND... ...EXPECTED TO REACH GUANTANAMO OR HOLGUIN CUBA AS A HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.1N 73.1W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ENE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has changed the Hurricane Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Bahamas * North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Holguin and Guantanamo to Punta Maisi A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Turks and Caicos Islands * South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo * North coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Province of Camaguey A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the central Bahamas should monitor the progress of Oscar. Tropical storm watches could be required for this area later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 73.1 West. Oscar is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A west-southwestward or westward motion at a slower forward speed is expected through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest and north on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar will move across Great Inagua this morning, make landfall along the northeastern coast of Cuba later this afternoon or evening, and then move across eastern Cuba tonight and Monday. Oscar will then accelerate northeastward across the central Bahamas on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Oscar is forecast to reach the northeastern coast of Cuba as a hurricane later this afternoon. Weakening is expected after landfall, but Oscar could still be a tropical storm when it moves north of Cuba late Monday and moves across the central Bahamas on Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 5 miles (10 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue across portions of the warning area in the southeastern Bahamas, particularly Great Inagua Island, through this morning. Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in Cuba late this afternoon and evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and possible in the watch area of Cuba this afternoon into Monday. Tropical storm conditions will diminish across the Turks and Caicos Islands this morning. RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches with isolated amounts of 15 inches are expected across eastern Cuba. Across the southeastern Bahamas, 2 to 4 inches are expected, with isolated amounts around 6 inches. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf . STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Great Inagua Island in the southeastern Bahamas, where water levels are expected to be between 2 and 4 feet above normal tide levels. Water levels of 1 to 3 ft above normal tide levels are expected along the north shore of Cuba in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
Category: Transportation and Logistics