je.st
news
Hurricane Oscar Public Advisory Number 5
2024-10-20 10:44:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 200844 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 500 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 ...OSCAR MAKES LANDFALL ON GREAT INAGUA ISLAND... ...EXPECTED TO REACH GUANTANAMO OR HOLGUIN CUBA AS A HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.1N 73.1W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ENE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has changed the Hurricane Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Bahamas * North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Holguin and Guantanamo to Punta Maisi A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Turks and Caicos Islands * South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo * North coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Province of Camaguey A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the central Bahamas should monitor the progress of Oscar. Tropical storm watches could be required for this area later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 73.1 West. Oscar is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A west-southwestward or westward motion at a slower forward speed is expected through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest and north on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar will move across Great Inagua this morning, make landfall along the northeastern coast of Cuba later this afternoon or evening, and then move across eastern Cuba tonight and Monday. Oscar will then accelerate northeastward across the central Bahamas on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Oscar is forecast to reach the northeastern coast of Cuba as a hurricane later this afternoon. Weakening is expected after landfall, but Oscar could still be a tropical storm when it moves north of Cuba late Monday and moves across the central Bahamas on Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 5 miles (10 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue across portions of the warning area in the southeastern Bahamas, particularly Great Inagua Island, through this morning. Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in Cuba late this afternoon and evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and possible in the watch area of Cuba this afternoon into Monday. Tropical storm conditions will diminish across the Turks and Caicos Islands this morning. RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches with isolated amounts of 15 inches are expected across eastern Cuba. Across the southeastern Bahamas, 2 to 4 inches are expected, with isolated amounts around 6 inches. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf . STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Great Inagua Island in the southeastern Bahamas, where water levels are expected to be between 2 and 4 feet above normal tide levels. Water levels of 1 to 3 ft above normal tide levels are expected along the north shore of Cuba in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
Category:Transportation and Logistics
LATEST NEWS
Hurricane Oscar Forecast Advisory Number 5
2024-10-20 10:43:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 20 2024 161 WTNT21 KNHC 200843 TCMAT1 HURRICANE OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 0900 UTC SUN OCT 20 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 73.1W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 5NE 5SE 0SW 5NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 73.1W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 72.7W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.6N 74.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 5NE 5SE 0SW 5NW. 50 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.4N 75.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.8N 76.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.7N 76.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.7N 75.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.8N 74.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 73.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 20/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Nadine Graphics
2024-10-20 10:42:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Oct 2024 08:42:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Oct 2024 08:42:14 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics