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Hurricane Oscar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2024-10-20 22:54:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 20 2024 198 FONT11 KNHC 202045 PWSAT1 HURRICANE OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 2100 UTC SUN OCT 20 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GREAT EXUMA 34 1 X( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 8(10) 11(21) X(21) X(21) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) GRAND TURK 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 45 7(52) X(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Hurricane Oscar (AT1/AL162024)
2024-10-20 22:52:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OSCAR CLOSE TO LANDFALL IN CUBA... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT... As of 5:00 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 the center of Oscar was located near 20.5, -74.3 with movement WSW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Oscar Public Advisory Number 7
2024-10-20 22:52:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 239 WTNT31 KNHC 202044 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 500 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 ...OSCAR CLOSE TO LANDFALL IN CUBA... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 74.3W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM ENE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Holguin and Guantanamo to Punta Maisi A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Bahamas * South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo * North coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Province of Camaguey * Central Bahamas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case tonight into tomorrow. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Oscar. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 74.3 West. Oscar is moving toward the west-southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A continued west-southwestward motion at a slow forward speed is expected through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest and north on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to make landfall along the northern coast of eastern Cuba shortly. The system is then expected to move across eastern Cuba tonight and Monday. Oscar is then forecast to begin moving a bit faster to the northeast across the central Bahamas on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. After Oscar makes landfall, significant weakening is expected, but Oscar could still be a tropical storm when it moves north of Cuba late Monday and then moves across the central Bahamas on Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). Recently, there was a wind gust of 63 mph (101 km/h) from a weather station in Punta Maisi on the eastern tip of Cuba. The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). A weather station in Punta Maisi on the eastern tip of Cuba recently reported a minimum pressure of 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in Cuba beginning shortly and continuing through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected for a few more hours in the warning area for the southeastern Bahamas and for tonight and Monday in the warning area in Cuba, and are possible in the watch area of Cuba this tonight into Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the central Bahamas on Tuesday. RAINFALL: Through Wednesday morning, rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with isolated amounts of 18 inches are expected across eastern Cuba. Across the southeastern Bahamas, 3 to 5 inches are expected, with isolated amounts around 8 inches. Across the Turks and Caicos, an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected through Wednesday morning. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf . STORM SURGE: Water levels of 1 to 3 ft above normal tide levels are expected along the north shore of Cuba in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Papin
Category: Transportation and Logistics