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Hurricane PATRICIA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2015-10-22 22:34:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 22 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 222034 PWSEP5 HURRICANE PATRICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 2100 UTC THU OCT 22 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PATRICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 10(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN BLAS 34 X 3( 3) 69(72) 8(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) 24(24) 16(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) 9( 9) 13(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) P VALLARTA 34 X 18(18) 73(91) 3(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) P VALLARTA 50 X 1( 1) 58(59) 7(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) 35(35) 9(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 3 64(67) 25(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 7( 7) 52(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X 1( 1) 32(33) 2(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) MANZANILLO 34 3 52(55) 27(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) MANZANILLO 50 X 3( 3) 31(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) 16(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) L CARDENAS 34 2 2( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 5( 5) 43(48) 4(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 13(13) 4(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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