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Hurricane Rafael Forecast Advisory Number 16
2024-11-07 15:51:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU NOV 07 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 071451 TCMAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 1500 UTC THU NOV 07 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 85.2W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 85.2W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 84.9W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 24.6N 86.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.6N 88.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.6N 89.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.7N 91.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 24.7N 91.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.5N 92.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 24.0N 93.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 40SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 22.0N 94.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 40SW 40NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 85.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Graphics
2024-11-07 15:50:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 07 Nov 2024 14:50:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 07 Nov 2024 14:50:32 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 5
2024-11-07 15:49:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 071449 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142024 900 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 The depression is once again struggling to produce deep organized convection. Thunderstorms from the diurnal maximum overnight have dissipated, and the low-level center is nearing an area of convection not associated with the depression. Furthermore, the outflow boundaries from the adjacent thunderstorms seem to be disrupting the low-level circulation. The TAFB Dvorak Final-T has also trended downward to T1.5, reflecting the decaying convective organization. The initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 25 kt for this advisory. Environmental conditions should remain marginal to hostile and prevent further strengthening. Global models continue to predict that the depression should open into a trough within a day, though it is possible this has already occurred. The latest official intensity forecast still shows dissipation occurring by Friday. The depression is moving at an uncertain 110/4 kt. The low-level flow is expected to turn the depression to the southeast soon. The NHC track position is near the corrected consensus aid, HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 13.2N 104.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 12.3N 103.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci
Category: Transportation and Logistics