je.st
news
Hurricane Rafael Graphics
2024-11-06 21:51:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 06 Nov 2024 20:51:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 06 Nov 2024 20:51:52 GMT
Category:Transportation and Logistics
LATEST NEWS
Hurricane Rafael Forecast Discussion Number 13
2024-11-06 21:49:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 062049 TCDAT3 Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 400 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 The radar and satellite presentation of Rafael continued to improve after the release of the previous advisory with the eye becoming quite distinct around midday in geostationary satellite imagery. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft was able to fly a couple of passes through the center earlier this afternoon and measured a peak flight-level wind of 104 kt and an extrapolated minimum pressure of 956 mb. The aircraft was unable to sample the northeastern quadrant where the maximum winds were likely located. Therefore, the initial intensity was increased to 100 kt on the 1800 UTC intermediate advisory. The 100-kt initial intensity is supported by a blend of the various UW/CIMSS objective Dvorak estimates, and UW/CIMSS SATCON which peaked near that value. Over the past few hours it appears that an eyewall replacement cycle is underway as the eye has become less distinct in satellite imagery, and radar data has shown the erosion of the smaller inner-eyewall. With the eyewall replacement ongoing, little additional change in strength is expected before Rafael makes landfall in western Cuba within the next hour or so. Some weakening is expected as the storm crosses Cuba, but Rafael is likely to remain a hurricane over the southeastern and southern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and significantly drier air are likely to result in weakening. As noted earlier, there are some models that take Rafael southwestward late in the period over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico where environmental conditions could be less hostile. If additional southward adjustments to the track forecast are needed on subsequent advisories, it is likely that some modest upward adjustments to the longer-range intensity may also be required. The initial motion estimate is northwestward or 320/11 kt. Rafael is expected to continue to move around the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge over the southwestern Atlantic during the next day or so. After that time, the ridge is forecast to build westward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico which should cause Rafael to turn more westward over the southern Gulf of Mexico. By 72 hours, the spread in the track guidance increases once again, with the GFS showing a more northward solution than most of the remainder of the track guidance. The NHC track forecast has been shifted southward once again to be in better agreement with the various consensus aids. It is possible that future southward and southwestward adjustment will be needed as several of the models now show the cyclone moving west-southwestward over the southwestern Gulf by the end of the period. Key Messages: 1. Rafael is forecast to cross western Cuba as a major hurricane this afternoon and evening. A hurricane warning is in effect for this region, where a life-threatening storm surge, damaging hurricane-force winds, and destructive waves are expected. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected in the Lower and Middle Florida Keys beginning later today and tonight. 3. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain to the Cayman Islands and western Cuba through Thursday. Flash flooding and mudslides are expected in areas of higher terrain in western Cuba. 4. Rafael is forecast to meander over the south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 22.6N 82.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 23.6N 83.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 24.1N 85.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 24.2N 87.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 24.2N 89.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 09/0600Z 24.3N 90.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 24.5N 91.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 24.6N 92.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 24.5N 93.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Rafael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2024-11-06 21:48:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED NOV 06 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 062048 PWSAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 2100 UTC WED NOV 06 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MARATHON FL 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KEY WEST FL 34 8 2(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) NAPLES FL 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) VENICE FL 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TAMPA FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 6(17) 3(20) X(20) HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 10(18) 3(21) 1(22) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 4(15) 1(16) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 2(15) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) X(11) COZUMEL MX 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 2 6( 8) 4(12) 2(14) 1(15) 1(16) X(16) HAVANA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HAVANA 50 81 X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) HAVANA 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLE OF PINES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Category: Transportation and Logistics