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Hurricane Rafael Public Advisory Number 10
2024-11-06 03:56:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM EST Tue Nov 05 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 060256 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 1000 PM EST Tue Nov 05 2024 ...HURRICANE RAFAEL PASSING THROUGH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... ...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY UNTIL LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 80.4W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ENE OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, and Ciego de Avila * Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge * Dry Tortugas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the southern Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of Rafael. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 80.4 West. Rafael is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A general northwestward motion is anticipated over the next day or so, followed by a gradual west-northwestward turn in the Gulf of Mexico. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to pass through the Cayman Islands tonight, be near or over western Cuba on Wednesday, and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday night. Aircraft dropsonde data indicates that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid strengthening is forecast over the next 12-18 hours, and Rafael is now forecast to become a Category 2 hurricane before it makes landfall in Cuba on Wednesday. Rafael could briefly weaken over Cuba but is then expected to emerge into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). An observation site on Cayman Brac recently reported a wind gust of 80 mph (129 km/h). The minimum central pressure estimated from aircraft dropsonde observations is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands tonight and are also expected in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible farther east in central Cuba late tonight into Wednesday. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean through early Thursday, particularly across Jamaica and the Cayman Islands into southern and western portions of Cuba. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches are expected, with isolated higher totals up to 10 inches anticipated across areas of higher terrain, which could lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the Cayman Islands tonight, and could raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba in the Hurricane Warning area, including the Isle of Youth on Wednesday. The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday over the Florida Keys and far southwestern Florida mainland. SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days and will also spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this week into the early part of the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Papin
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Rafael Forecast Advisory Number 10
2024-11-06 03:54:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED NOV 06 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 060254 TCMAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0300 UTC WED NOV 06 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 80.4W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 20SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 20SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 80.4W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 79.9W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.2N 81.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.0N 83.2W...ON THE N CUBA COAST MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.3N 84.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 24.8N 85.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 25.1N 87.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 25.4N 89.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 26.7N 91.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 27.9N 91.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 80.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 06/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Hurricane Rafael (AT3/AL182024)
2024-11-06 01:21:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RAFAEL INTENSIFIES INTO A HURRICANE... As of 7:20 PM EST Tue Nov 5 the center of Rafael was located near 19.4, -79.9 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics