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Hurricane Rafael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2024-11-06 03:56:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED NOV 06 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 060256 PWSAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0300 UTC WED NOV 06 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) W PALM BEACH 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 5( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MIAMI FL 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MARATHON FL 34 3 20(23) 6(29) 3(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) MARATHON FL 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 3 43(46) 8(54) 2(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) KEY WEST FL 50 X 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NAPLES FL 34 1 7( 8) 11(19) 4(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) FT MYERS FL 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) VENICE FL 34 X 4( 4) 11(15) 6(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) TAMPA FL 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 6(16) 1(17) X(17) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 10(19) 3(22) X(22) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 25(34) 6(40) 1(41) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 14(35) 3(38) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 15(23) 6(29) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 6(17) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 4(15) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) COZUMEL MX 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 4(13) X(13) 1(14) ANDROS 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 2 8(10) 12(22) 5(27) 3(30) 1(31) X(31) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HAVANA 34 5 88(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) HAVANA 50 1 60(61) 2(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) HAVANA 64 X 22(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) ISLE OF PINES 34 53 37(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) ISLE OF PINES 50 7 44(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) ISLE OF PINES 64 1 49(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) CIENFUEGOS 34 81 4(85) X(85) X(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86) CIENFUEGOS 50 13 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) CIENFUEGOS 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CAMAGUEY 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 9 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Rafael Forecast Advisory Number 10
2024-11-06 03:54:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED NOV 06 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 060254 TCMAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0300 UTC WED NOV 06 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 80.4W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 20SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 20SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 80.4W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 79.9W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.2N 81.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.0N 83.2W...ON THE N CUBA COAST MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.3N 84.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 24.8N 85.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 25.1N 87.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 25.4N 89.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 26.7N 91.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 27.9N 91.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 80.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 06/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Hurricane Rafael (AT3/AL182024)
2024-11-06 01:21:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RAFAEL INTENSIFIES INTO A HURRICANE... As of 7:20 PM EST Tue Nov 5 the center of Rafael was located near 19.4, -79.9 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics