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Hurricane Rick Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2021-10-23 16:46:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 23 2021 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 231446 PWSEP2 HURRICANE RICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172021 1500 UTC SAT OCT 23 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 105W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 14(23) X(23) X(23) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MANZANILLO 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 20(26) 14(40) X(40) X(40) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) X(12) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) L CARDENAS 34 1 12(13) 51(64) 24(88) 4(92) X(92) X(92) L CARDENAS 50 X 2( 2) 20(22) 33(55) 6(61) X(61) X(61) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 26(33) 4(37) X(37) X(37) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 19(20) 47(67) 15(82) 2(84) X(84) X(84) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X 2( 2) 22(24) 19(43) 2(45) X(45) X(45) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) 15N 100W 34 2 5( 7) 4(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ACAPULCO 34 1 5( 6) 9(15) 5(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) ACAPULCO 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P MALDONADO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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