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Post-Tropical Cyclone Alvin Forecast Discussion Number 12
2025-05-31 16:37:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM MST Sat May 31 2025 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 311437 TCDEP1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Alvin Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025 800 AM MST Sat May 31 2025 Cool waters, dry mid-level air, and strong vertical wind shear have taken their toll on Alvin. The system has been devoid of deep convection for more than 12 hours, and has become a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds. The initial intensity has been lowered to a possibly generous 30 kt. Continued hostile environmental conditions are expected to prevent any return of deep convection, and therefore this will be the final advisory on the system as it has become a post-tropical remnant low. The low should continue to spin down as it moves slowly northward today. Global model guidance indicates that the low will open up into a trough of low pressure as it passes near the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula in about 24 hours. Swells generated by Alvin are expected to persist along portions of the west-central mainland Mexico and southern Baja California coasts through the weekend, creating potentially dangerous surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 20.7N 109.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 01/0000Z 21.8N 109.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown [ more ]
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Alvin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2025-05-31 16:36:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT MAY 31 2025 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 311436 PWSEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025 1500 UTC SAT MAY 31 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Post-Tropical Cyclone Alvin Public Advisory Number 12
2025-05-31 16:36:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM MST Sat May 31 2025 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 311436 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Alvin Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025 800 AM MST Sat May 31 2025 ...ALVIN DEGENERATES TO A REMNANT LOW... ...SWELLS AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL MAINLAND MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 109.5W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Alvin was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 109.5 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slightly slower northward motion is expected through tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected today and the low is forecast to dissipate by Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by this system will affect portions of the coasts of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California Peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Alvin. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Brown [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics