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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Forecast Discussion Number 1
2024-09-15 22:58:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 152058 TCDAT3 Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024 500 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the non-tropical low pressure system off the South Carolina coast has a broad low-level circulation center, but could be in the process of reforming closer to the mid-level circulation currently seen on radar from Wilmington, NC. However, the system may not have yet completely shed its frontal characteristics. Since there is deep convection over and around the center, it is becoming more likely the cyclone could become either a tropical or subtropical cyclone within the next day or so. Therefore the disturbance is being designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight at this time with an initial intensity of 40 kt. There has been significant uncertainty in the center positions since last night, and the best guess at initial motion is northwestward or 320/6 kt. Over the next couple of days, the disturbance is expected to be steered by the flow on the southern or southwestern side of a mid-level high pressure system over the northeastern United States. This motion should bring the center inland over the southeastern U.S. coast in 24 hours or so. The NHC forecast track is close to the simple and corrected dynamical consensus model solutions. the system will be traversing warm waters for the next 24 hours or so and it may be situated within an area of relatively low shear near the axis of an upper-level trough. Therefore some strengthening is possible before landfall, and the official forecast is similar to the latest decay-SHIPS model guidance. Key Messages: 1. An area of low pressure off the southeastern U.S. coast is expected to bring impacts from tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rain, coastal flooding, and high surf to portions of the southeast United States coast beginning tonight and continuing during the next couple of days. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina within the Tropical Storm Warning area beginning tonight through tomorrow night. 3. The system will bring the potential for scattered flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding across eastern North Carolina and northeast South Carolina from tonight into early Tuesday. There is also a risk of isolated flash and urban flooding across much of the Mid-Atlantic region through Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 32.0N 78.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 16/0600Z 32.4N 78.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 16/1800Z 33.1N 79.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/0600Z 34.1N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 17/1800Z 35.4N 80.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 18/0600Z 36.7N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 18/1800Z 37.5N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Graphics
2024-09-15 22:58:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2024 20:58:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2024 21:28:58 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2024-09-15 22:57:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 152057 PWSAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082024 2100 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DANVILLE VA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) RALEIGH NC 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FAYETTEVILLE 34 1 17(18) 4(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 5( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CHERRY PT NC 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW RIVER NC 34 5 7(12) X(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) MOREHEAD CITY 34 7 8(15) X(15) X(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) SURF CITY NC 34 16 15(31) 1(32) X(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) WILMINGTON NC 34 16 15(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) BALD HEAD ISL 34 40 18(58) X(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 7 36(43) 7(50) X(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 17(17) 5(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) LITTLE RIVER 34 38 29(67) 2(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) LITTLE RIVER 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 34 45 28(73) 2(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GEORGETOWN SC 34 48 28(76) 2(78) X(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 27 27(54) 2(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) CHARLESTON SC 50 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CHARLESTON SC 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 7 15(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Category: Transportation and Logistics