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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Forecast Discussion Number 2
2024-11-04 04:03:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM EST Sun Nov 03 2024 588 WTNT43 KNHC 040258 TCDAT3 Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 1000 PM EST Sun Nov 03 2024 The convective structure of the system in the south-central Caribbean Sea has not become any better organized this evening. Current shower and thunderstorm activity is clustered in two regions to the south and northeast of the estimated center. The center itself remains quite broad and lacks distinct banding features, as seen on an earlier GMI microwave pass at 2219 UTC. Given the lack of improvement from this afternoon, the system remains a Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC), with an initial intensity at 30 kt. An Air Force Reconnaissance Aircraft is in route to sample the system tonight, and we should soon also receive an ASCAT-B scatterometer pass to provide more information on its structure and intensity. My best guess is that the system continues to move slowly northward this evening, with a current motion a fairly uncertain 360/5 kt. Over the next couple of days, a large mid-level ridge currently parked north of the system off the southeastern U.S. coast should shift a little eastward and build farther southeastward towards Hispaniola. The result of this synoptic pattern should cause PTC18 to turn northwestward and gradually accelerate as it moves into the northwestern Caribbean. This motion should bring the system near Jamaica by Monday evening and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday evening. This northwestward track should continue, likely bringing the system over Cuba and ultimately into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in 72 h. After that time, the track guidance begins to diverge, with notable ECMWF ensemble cross-track spread in the southwest-to-northeast direction over the Gulf of Mexico. Some of this track spread is related to how fast a mid-latitude cutoff low over the four corners region of the U.S. ejects out into the central Plains. This feature will play a role in how much the mid-level ridging ahead of the system becomes eroded when it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico. The track guidance is a little slower compared to the previous cycle, and the NHC track forecast is also a little bit slower this advisory, while nudged just a hair to the west of the prior forecast at the end of period. However, forecast confidence on the track in the 96-h and 120-h time-frame is lower than usual. The intensity forecast is also uncertain, because how much the system is able to intensify will be determined by its evolving structure over the next couple of days. Environmental conditions in the northwestern Caribbean are forecast to be quite favorable, with SHIPS guidance indicating vertical wind shear remaining 10 kt or lower while traversing very warm 29-30 C sea-surface temperatures for the next 48-60 h. Such an environment could favor rapid intensification, as some of the regional-hurricane model guidance aids were suggesting earlier today. However, this evolution depends on when or if the system is able to develop an inner-core, and the current poor structure argues against substantial development in the short-term. Assuming the system does ultimately develop a better aligned vortex, more significant intensification is forecast in the 24-60 h time frame, and the NHC intensity forecast still shows the system becoming a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean. After PTC18 crosses Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico, the forecast environment becomes less favorable, with increasing southwesterly shear and decreasing sea-surface temperatures, though this environment is quite dependent on the forecast track. The latest NHC intensity forecast is quite similar to the prior one, splitting the difference between the more aggressive hurricane-regional models, and more subdued global model and statistical-dynamical aids. Key Messages: 1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm Monday and pass near Jamaica on Monday night and Tuesday where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. The system is forecast to become a hurricane by Tuesday night and there is a risk of dangerous impacts from hurricane-force winds and storm surge in the Cayman Islands and portions of Cuba. 2. Interests in Cuba and the Florida Keys should closely monitor this system as hurricane and tropical storm watches could be required for portions of these areas on Monday. 3. The system is forecast to enter the western Gulf of Mexico later this week, but given significant uncertainties in the long-range forecast track and intensity, it is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts could occur. Residents in this area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast. 4. The system will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the western Caribbean, including Jamaica and the southern and western portions of Cuba through mid-week. Flooding could occur over portions of Jamaica and Cuba, with mudslides possible. Heavy rainfall could then spread northward into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States during the middle to late portions of the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 13.3N 76.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 04/1200Z 14.2N 76.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 05/0000Z 16.0N 77.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 17.9N 78.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 19.8N 80.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 06/1200Z 21.8N 82.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 23.5N 84.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 25.5N 87.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 26.5N 89.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Graphics
2024-11-04 03:59:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 04 Nov 2024 02:59:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 04 Nov 2024 02:59:53 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2024-11-04 03:55:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON NOV 04 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 040255 PWSAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0300 UTC MON NOV 04 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 3(22) 1(23) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 4(30) 1(31) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 4(17) 2(19) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) 1(16) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 3(14) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 5(19) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 10(28) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 35(37) 5(42) 1(43) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) 1(15) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) 1(33) X(33) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 51(65) 1(66) X(66) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 1(27) X(27) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 21(40) 1(41) X(41) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 39(42) 8(50) X(50) X(50) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 4(17) X(17) 1(18) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTEGO BAY 34 X 2( 2) 32(34) 6(40) X(40) 1(41) X(41) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KINGSTON 34 X 3( 3) 13(16) 1(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Category: Transportation and Logistics