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Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Forecast Advisory Number 1
2024-10-18 22:57:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 18 2024 231 WTNT25 KNHC 182036 TCMAT5 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152024 2100 UTC FRI OCT 18 2024 POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 85.0W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 85.0W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 84.6W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.5N 86.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.3N 88.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.2N 90.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 85.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HOGSETT/CANGIALOSI
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Graphics
2024-10-18 22:45:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Oct 2024 20:45:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Oct 2024 21:22:44 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-10-18 19:41:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 181736 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: North of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (AL94): Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that a trough of low pressure continues to produce showers and thunderstorms extending a couple hundred miles north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Development, if any, of this disturbance should be slow to occur while it moves quickly westward to west-northwestward at around 20 mph, continuing north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today, then near Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas this weekend. Further development is not expected due to strong upper-level winds by early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. Western Caribbean Sea (AL95): Widespread showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized today across the northwestern Caribbean Sea in association with a broad area of low pressure that is gradually becoming better defined to the north of eastern Honduras. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some additional development over the next day or so, and a short-lived tropical depression or storm could form before the system moves inland over Central America on Saturday. Interests in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system, as tropical storm watches or warnings may be required later today. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of Central America and southern Mexico through the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics