je.st
news
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Public Advisory Number 3A
2024-06-18 13:42:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 181142 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone One Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024 700 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 92.8W ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 010 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch for the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio Grande to Puerto de Altamira to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * the Texas coast from Port O'Connor southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande * the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio Grande to Puerto de Altamira. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 92.8 West. The system is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west-northwest and west is expected is expected tonight and Wednesday, and the system is likely to approach the western Gulf coast late Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some increase in strength is likely during the next 36 hours, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm by Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. The disturbance is quite large with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 290 miles (465 km) to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South Texas, with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across northeast Mexico. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 ft Galveston Bay...2-4 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. In Mexico, minor coastal flooding is possible north of where the center of the system crosses the coast in areas of onshore winds. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area by Wednesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
Category:Transportation and Logistics
LATEST NEWS
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-06-18 13:40:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 181140 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone One, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean: An area of cloudiness and showers located several hundred miles east of the Bahamas is associated with a surface trough and an upper-level area of low pressure. Environmental conditions could be conducive for some gradual development of this system during the next few days while it moves westward or west-northwestward. The system is forecast to approach the coast of the southeastern United States on Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico: Another broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system early next week while it moves slowly northward or northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. && Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone One are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone One are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-06-18 13:38:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 181138 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Tue Jun 18 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category: Transportation and Logistics