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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2019-09-28 16:51:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 281451 PWSEP1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019 1500 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) X(12) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 14(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MANZANILLO 34 X 5( 5) 28(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) L CARDENAS 34 1 13(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ZIHUATANEJO 34 2 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 100W 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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