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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2019-09-28 22:40:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 233 FOPZ11 KNHC 282040 PWSEP1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019 2100 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 20(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 27(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) L CARDENAS 34 X 23(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) L CARDENAS 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 16(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) 15N 100W 34 83 1(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) 15N 100W 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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