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Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Six Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

2020-10-04 22:55:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 042055 PWSAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY-SIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 2100 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY-SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) 1(19) X(19) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) 1(12) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 3( 6) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 6(13) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 6(17) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 9(16) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 12(22) 12(34) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 10(16) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 15(23) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 17(25) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 20(35) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 26(45) 15(60) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 10(27) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 19(30) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 34(44) 20(64) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 13(30) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 18(27) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 19(32) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 15(24) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 16(27) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 15(41) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 7(18) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 10(17) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 13(27) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 8(16) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 9(18) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) 1(13) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 38(51) 2(53) X(53) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 1(24) X(24) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) 1(10) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 20(44) X(44) X(44) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 48(50) 14(64) X(64) X(64) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 9(26) X(26) X(26) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 1( 1) 23(24) 23(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTEGO BAY 34 2 9(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) KINGSTON 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 13(24) PENSACOLA NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) PENSACOLA NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 18(33) KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) KEESLER AB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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