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Subtropical Storm Patty Graphics
2024-11-02 15:37:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Nov 2024 14:37:58 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Nov 2024 14:37:58 GMT
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Lane Forecast Discussion Number 4
2024-11-02 15:37:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Nov 02 2024 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 021436 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132024 800 AM PDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Lane has continued to produce deep convection this morning over the low-level center, with cold cloud tops near -80 C. Objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates have increased and range from 35 to 45 kt. Given the continued deep convection and using a blend of these satellite estimates, the initial intensity is set to 40 kt for this advisory. Lane continues to move westward at 270/6 kt, and this general motion should continue over the next few days as the storm is steered by a a subtropical ridge to the north. The latest NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one, and remains near the latest consensus aids. Warm sea-surface temperatures and a relative low wind shear environment could allow Lane to strengthen a little more today. Environmental conditions become less favorable on Sunday as southwesterly shear is forecast to increase over the system, and the storm is forecast to move into a drier airmass early next week, which should cause Lane to weaken. Lane is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low in about 48 h, although given the small size of the system it could dissipate even sooner than forecast as is depicted by some model fields, including the GFS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 11.3N 130.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 11.3N 131.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 11.3N 132.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 11.4N 133.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 11.4N 135.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/0000Z 11.5N 136.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1200Z 11.5N 137.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Subtropical Storm Patty Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2024-11-02 15:36:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT NOV 02 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 021435 PWSAT2 SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172024 1500 UTC SAT NOV 02 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 46 X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) PONTA DELGADA 34 2 54(56) 12(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) PONTA DELGADA 50 X 11(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) PONTA DELGADA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Category: Transportation and Logistics