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Summary for Hurricane Isaac (AT5/AL102024)
2024-09-28 10:38:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ISAAC CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...LARGE AREA OF DANGEROUS HIGH SEAS SPREADING SOUTH OF THE HURRICANE... As of 9:00 AM GMT Sat Sep 28 the center of Isaac was located near 39.3, -41.3 with movement NE at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Isaac Forecast Advisory Number 10
2024-09-28 10:38:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 28 2024 804 WTNT25 KNHC 280838 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102024 0900 UTC SAT SEP 28 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 41.3W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 25SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 45SE 40SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 130SE 110SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 360SE 360SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 41.3W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.8N 42.2W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 40.4N 39.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 25SE 20SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 130SE 110SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 42.1N 37.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 20SE 20SW 10NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 43.5N 35.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 15SE 15SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 120SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 44.6N 33.1W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 130SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 46.0N 31.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 120SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 48.0N 30.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 90SE 90SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 52.5N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...180NE 80SE 90SW 120NW. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 55.7N 28.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 150SW 160NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.3N 41.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 4
2024-09-28 10:37:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 28 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 280835 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024 500 AM AST Sat Sep 28 2024 Satellite imagery this morning indicates that Joyce has changed little in organization since the last advisory, with the low-level center located on the southern edge of the convection due to southerly shear. Satellite intensity estimates are clustered near 45 kt and have changed little during the past 6 h, and based on this the initial intensity remains 45 kt. The initial motion is just a little to the right of the previous motion, 305/9 kt. Joyce is on the south side of a narrow subtropical ridge, which is going to weaken and break as a deep-layer trough amplifies over the central Atlantic during the next few days. This evolution should cause Joyce to move slowly to the west-northwest and northwest for a couple of days, followed by an even slower motion toward the north. The track guidance is in generally good agreement through 48 h, but after that time there is some divergence due to a couple of the regional hurricane models forecasting a stronger Joyce to recurve into the aforementioned trough. As with the previous advisory, the track forecast calls for a weaker Joyce to move slowly and not be fully picked up by the trough, and the new forecast track has no significant changes from the previous forecast. Joyce is experiencing moderate southerly shear, and the global models forecast this to continue for the next several days. In addition, the storm will be moving into a gradually drier and subsident environment. Thus, the new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast in calling for little change in strength during the next 12 hours, followed by gradual weakening. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Joyce will lose its convection and become a remnant low by day 3, if not sooner. The remnant low should degenerate into a trough by day 4 or 5, with the remnants subsequently being absorbed by another system approaching from the east. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 19.5N 45.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 20.0N 46.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 20.5N 48.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 21.1N 49.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 21.7N 49.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 30/1800Z 22.3N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 22.6N 49.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/0600Z 23.0N 50.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Category: Transportation and Logistics