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Summary for Tropical Depression Twelve (AT2/AL122024)
2024-09-29 23:00:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...COULD BECOME A FORMIDABLE HURRICANE LATER THIS WEEK... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Sep 29 the center of Twelve was located near 13.8, -32.5 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Depression Twelve Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2024-09-29 23:00:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 29 2024 872 FONT12 KNHC 292043 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 2100 UTC SUN SEP 29 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 10
2024-09-29 22:57:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2024 180 WTNT41 KNHC 292042 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024 500 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2024 Joyce's center continues to be exposed to the southwest of its convective mass as shear persists across the circulation. There's generally been a slight reduction in the objective and subjective estimates from the last advisory, so the initial wind speed is set to 35 kt. The storm is moving erratically northwestward at about 5 kt. Joyce is still forecast to turn northward on Monday due to a deep-layer trough over the north-central Atlantic, with only minor disagreements on the exact longitude of recurvature. The new forecast is a touch west of the last one, consistent with the consensus guidance. The intensity forecast seems straightforward with unabating shear and plentiful environmental dry air causing gradual weakening, with no significant change from the last NHC forecast. The remnant low might dissipate into a trough sooner than shown here, similar to the latest ECMWF forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 22.2N 49.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 22.6N 49.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 23.3N 49.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 24.0N 49.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 01/1800Z 25.0N 49.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 02/0600Z 26.2N 49.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
Category: Transportation and Logistics