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Summary for Tropical Storm Oscar (AT1/AL162024)
2024-10-19 16:59:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SMALL TROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORMS JUST EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND NORTHEASTERN PROVINCES OF CUBA... As of 11:00 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 the center of Oscar was located near 21.3, -70.2 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Oscar Forecast Advisory Number 1
2024-10-19 16:58:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024 000 WTNT21 KNHC 191457 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 1500 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 70.2W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 70.2W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 69.6W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 21.4N 71.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.2N 73.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.9N 74.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.0N 75.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.6N 75.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.5N 75.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 0SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 25.1N 72.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 80NW. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 70.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 19/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Nadine Forecast Discussion Number 4
2024-10-19 16:58:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 191457 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Nadine is very close to making landfall in Belize, near Belize City. The center is currently moving across the country's barrier islands of Turneffe Atoll and landfall on the mainland will likely occur within the next hour. The sprawling tropical storm continues to slowly intensify, and a combination of objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates support increasing the maximum winds to 45 kt. Furthermore, radar data indicate that the structure of Nadine has improved and there are curved bands surrounding the center. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are currently in the northern portion of the storm, and they will likely reach the center soon. A Tropical Cyclone Update will be provided when the storm makes landfall. The storm is moving due westward at 7 kt, and the system is expected to continue accelerating in that direction during the next day or so. This motion should take Nadine across Belize, northern Guatemala, and southern Mexico later today through Sunday. Nadine is expected to weaken after the core moves inland, and it will likely dissipate over southern Mexico by late Sunday. The remnants have a high chance of reforming in the eastern Pacific basin during the early to middle part of next week. Key Messages: 1. Localized areas of flash flooding are possible along the track of Nadine across southern Mexico, northern Guatemala, and northern Belize. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coasts of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico within the warning area through this afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 17.3N 87.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 17.3N 89.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/1200Z 16.8N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Torres-Vazquez
Category: Transportation and Logistics