je.st
news
Summary for Tropical Storm Oscar (AT1/AL162024)
2024-10-21 19:53:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA... As of 2:00 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 the center of Oscar was located near 20.6, -75.8 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Category:Transportation and Logistics
LATEST NEWS
Tropical Storm Oscar Forecast Discussion Number 10
2024-10-21 16:58:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 322 WTNT41 KNHC 211445 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Surface observations and visible satellite imagery indicate that the center of Oscar, although not very easy to locate, is still moving over eastern Cuba this morning. Radar observations from Guantanamo Bay show that the inner core of the tropical cyclone has become severely disrupted. The system has continued to weaken while interacting with the very mountainous terrain, and the initial wind speed is estimated to have decreased to near 35 kt, although this may be generous. The initial motion is an uncertain 300/3 kt. It is possible that the center of the system may re-form near the northern coast of Cuba later today. In any event, Oscar is expected to turn northward and northeastward on the eastern side of a mid-level trough over the western Bahamas through tonight. The system should then accelerate northeastward over portions of the southeastern Bahamas and western Atlantic ahead of the aforementioned trough. Global model predictions show the circulation of Oscar becoming absorbed by a larger, developing non-tropical low pressure area to the west of Bermuda by day 3. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and is very close to the dynamical model consensus. Some additional weakening is expected while Oscar continues to interact with the land mass of eastern Cuba today, and Oscar could weaken to a tropical depression before the circulation moves over water. Thereafter, the system will be contending with increasing westerly vertical wind shear and drier air. Therefore only slight restrengthening is anticipated within the next day or so, followed by little change in strength before Oscar becomes absorbed by the non-tropical low pressure system. The primary hazard associated with Oscar will continue to be heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding, particularly over the mountainous terrain of eastern Cuba. Preliminary reports in the Province of Guantanamo in eastern Cuba already indicate more than 10 inches of rain have fallen in spots. Key Messages: 1. Through midweek, heavy rainfall from Oscar will lead to areas of significant, life-threatening flash flooding along with mudslides across portions of eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra. In addition, localized flash flooding will be possible across the southeastern Bahamas. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue today across portions of eastern Cuba. Tropical storm conditions are also expected in portions of the southeastern Bahamas tonight and Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 20.3N 75.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 22/0000Z 21.0N 75.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 22/1200Z 22.2N 74.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 23.7N 73.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 25.6N 71.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 24/0000Z 28.3N 68.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 24/1200Z...ABSORBED BY NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA $$ Forecaster Pasch/Delgado
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Oscar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2024-10-21 16:52:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 21 2024 167 FONT11 KNHC 211444 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 1500 UTC MON OCT 21 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GREAT EXUMA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MAYAGUANA 34 X 6( 6) 17(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Category: Transportation and Logistics