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Tropical Depression Eighteen Public Advisory Number 4
2024-11-04 15:38:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 041438 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eighteen Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 1000 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024 ...SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 76.9W ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Watch for the provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth, and a Tropical Storm Watch for Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, and Las Tunas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, and Las Tunas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.system. Additional watches or warnings could be required today. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida Keys should closely monitor this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eighteen was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 76.9 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected to begin later today and forecast to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move near Jamaica tonight, be near or over the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, and approach Cuba on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today and a hurricane by Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Eighteen can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands by Tuesday afternoon and are possible in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica by this evening and are possible in central Cuba on Wednesday. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean with the heaviest rainfall occurring over Jamaica and portions of Cuba through mid-week. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches with locally up to 9 inches are expected. Flooding could occur over portions of Jamaica and Cuba, with mudslides possible. Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States during mid- to late week. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Eighteen, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica tonight and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Kelly
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Depression Eighteen Forecast Advisory Number 4
2024-11-04 15:38:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON NOV 04 2024 722 WTNT23 KNHC 041438 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 1500 UTC MON NOV 04 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 76.9W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 76.9W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 76.7W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.5N 77.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.2N 79.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 19.9N 80.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.7N 82.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.4N 83.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.6N 85.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 26.1N 87.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 27.4N 89.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 80NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 76.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 04/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen (AT3/AL182024)
2024-11-04 13:04:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... As of 7:05 AM EST Mon Nov 4 the center of Eighteen was located near 14.8, -76.8 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics