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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2024-10-01 22:56:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM CST Tue Oct 01 2024 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 012055 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 300 PM CST Tue Oct 01 2024 The small area of low pressure we have been monitoring for the past couple of days has become well-defined on satellite imagery this afternoon and was confirmed with recent scatterometer data. There has been enough organized deep convection today to consider this a tropical depression, as suggested by the Data-T estimate from TAFB, and the initial wind speed is set to 30 kt in accordance with the max believable scatterometer values. The initial motion is an uncertain 360/4 kt. The depression has been moving northward on the eastern end of the monsoon trough, and this general track is anticipated through landfall with little change seen in the steering flow for the next day or two. However, the model guidance is all over the place, owing to differences in the initial depth of the tropical depression and strength of the circulation associated with the monsoon trough and Invest 97E. The ECMWF model seems to have the best representation of the initial vortex, and the track forecast heavily leans on that model solution, especially given its recent successes with cyclones in that area. However, there is considerable spread in the guidance, and the tropical storm warning is larger than typical based on that uncertainty. Northeasterly shear is expected to continue to affect the depression through landfall, though very warm SSTs and a moist mid-level environment should promote some strengthening. These conditions would seem to favor intensification through landfall, and the first forecast shows a mid-range tropical storm, above most of the model guidance. At this point, extreme rainfall and flash flooding seem to be the biggest threats from this system. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later tonight or on Wednesday. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a portion of the coastline of southern Mexico, where tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on Wednesday. 2. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will likely bring heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico and Guatemala this week. Flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible, especially from western Guatemala into portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, and Tabasco. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 15.1N 94.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 15.5N 94.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 15.9N 94.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 16.5N 94.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 03/1800Z 17.1N 94.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 9
2024-10-01 22:55:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 012055 TCDAT2 Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 500 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2024 Kirk's appearance on satellite has improved with a large burst of convection near the center and deep convective bands continuing to wrap around the southeast side. A 1808 UTC GPM microwave pass showed an improved inner-core structure with an eyewall noted on the 37 GHz channel. The UW-CIMSS DMINT intensity estimate associated with the microwave image was 63 kt. This estimate combined with the most recent TAFB Dvorak fix of 4.0/65 kt is the basis for making Kirk a hurricane this afternoon with an intensity of 65 kt. Kirk is moving slightly more poleward this afternoon, with an estimated motion of 305/12 kt. This motion, with perhaps a slight slowdown, should continue over the next couple of days as Kirk is primarily steered along the southwestern edge of a subtropical ridge positioned to its north. The western extent of this ridge will become eroded by a long-wave trough offshore of eastern North America towards the latter part of this week, allowing Kirk to turn first northwestward and then recurving north-northeastward by the end of the forecast period. The track guidance continues to be in good agreement, and the latest NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, very similar to the prior advisory and between the HCCA and TVCN consensus aids. Now that Kirk's inner core is becoming better established it is poised to intensify at a faster rate. Favorable environmental factors surrounding Kirk, such as decreasing shear, warm 28-30 C sea-surface temperatures, and plenty of deep-layer moisture will continue to support a faster rate of strengthening through the 24-48 h period. The NHC intensity forecast shows Kirk becoming a major hurricane towards the end of the forecast period. In addition, Kirk's wind field is forecast to expand as the system moves poleward through the end of the week. Thereafter, hard to predict inner-core structural changes will likely lead to fluctuations in intensity, though by day 5, shear increases again with weakening commencing. However, Kirk will likely remain a large and formidable hurricane through the forecast. The NHC intensity forecast is close the middle of the intensity guidance consensus and still a little on the upper-end towards the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 16.2N 40.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 17.1N 41.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 18.3N 43.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 19.4N 44.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 20.4N 46.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 04/0600Z 21.5N 47.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 22.9N 49.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 27.0N 51.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 33.0N 49.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Mora/Papin
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Kirk Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2024-10-01 22:55:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 012054 PWSAT2 HURRICANE KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 2100 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS ...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER MORA/PAPIN
Category: Transportation and Logistics