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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2024-10-02 10:45:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 020845 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 300 AM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 Data from both ASCAT-B and ASCAT-C scatterometers show that the center of the small circulation is located somewhat west to west-southwest of the earlier track. There were a couple of scatterometer vectors showing minimal tropical-storm-force winds, but these appear to be rain-inflated. The advisory intensity is kept at 30 kt based on subjective and objective satellite estimates, and the unimpressive appearance of the system. With the re-positioning of the estimated center, the motion is highly uncertain but my best guess is around 290/5 kt. The track forecast is also quite uncertain, but needs to be shifted westward from the previous one. The new official forecast is a compromise between the previous NHC prediction, the trajectory model forecasts, and the dynamical models which are farther south. The cyclone continues to have the potential for a little strengthening before it reaches the coast, although fairly strong northeasterly vertical wind shear will likely limit its intensification. The official intensity forecast is near the upper end of the model guidance. The main impact from this system is expected to be heavy rainfall, which could lead to flooding and mudslides over portions of southern Mexico and western Guatemala. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of southern or southeastern Mexico. Since the system is now farther west than earlier indicated, the Tropical Storm Warning has been extended westward along the southern coast of Mexico. 2. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will likely bring heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico and Guatemala this week. Flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible, especially from western Guatemala into portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, and Tabasco. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 15.4N 95.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 15.5N 96.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 15.6N 96.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 15.7N 97.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 16.1N 97.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Hurricane Kirk (AT2/AL122024)
2024-10-02 10:44:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KIRK STRENGTHENING AND FORECAST TO GROW LARGER... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Oct 2 the center of Kirk was located near 17.5, -42.1 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Kirk Public Advisory Number 11
2024-10-02 10:44:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 020844 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 500 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2024 ...KIRK STRENGTHENING AND FORECAST TO GROW LARGER... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 42.1W ABOUT 1200 MI...1930 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1280 MI...2060 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 42.1 West. Kirk is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Kirk is expected to become a major hurricane by Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics