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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Public Advisory Number 5A

2024-10-03 01:50:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 600 PM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 424 WTPZ31 KNHC 022350 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 600 PM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 96.5W ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM S OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 200 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lagunas de Chacahua to Boca de Pijijiapan A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 96.5 West. The depression is moving toward the south-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow and erratic motion is expected tonight and Thursday, followed by a northward motion Thursday night through Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will be near the coast of Mexico in the Tropical Storm Warning area Thursday night or early Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before the center reaches the coast, and the system could become a tropical storm tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area Thursday and Friday. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, across portions of western Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz Tabasco and coastal Guerrero. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Eleven-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi


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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2024-10-03 01:48:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 022347 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Kirk, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean, and on Tropical Depression Thirteen, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system over the Gulf of Mexico this weekend while the system drifts eastward. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next few days and over portions of the Florida Peninsula by the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Thirteen are issued under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Thirteen are issued under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi


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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Advisory Number 5

2024-10-02 23:57:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 124 WTPZ21 KNHC 022035 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024 2100 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 96.5W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 200 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 96.5W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 96.4W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.0N 96.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.5N 96.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.0N 96.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.0N 96.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 16.7N 98.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 96.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 03/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN


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