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Tropical Depression Francine Forecast Discussion Number 16
2024-09-12 16:50:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 121450 CCA TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Francine Discussion Number 16...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Corrected Frances to Francine in the first paragraph Francine has continued to weaken this morning as the center moves across central Mississippi. Surface observations indicate that the central pressure has risen to near 996 mb, with winds of 25-30 kt observed about 80 n mi east and northeast of the center. Based on these data, the initial intensity is decreased to 30 kt. The surface observations and satellite imagery also suggest that Francine is merging with a frontal zone, and it is expected to become a post-tropical low later today or tonight. It should be noted that while the forecast shows the surface cyclone dissipating by 48 h, the remnants of the circulation above the surface will persist beyond that time and continue the heavy rainfall threat. The initial motion is now 360/12. A continued northward to north-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected before dissipation, bringing Francine or its remnants across northern Mississippi into northeastern Arkansas. This is the last Tropical Cyclone Discussion issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on this system can be found in discussions issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 400 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KWNH, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov. Rainfall forecasts for the United States can always be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php KEY MESSAGES: 1. Elevated water levels and high surf along portions of the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts should subside today. Until this occurs, residents in the affected area should continue to follow advice given by local officials. 2. Francine will continue to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of flash and urban flooding, along with river flooding, across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley and the Southeast. Considerable flash and urban flooding is possible through tonight over portions of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, expanding into Georgia and middle Tennessee Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 32.5N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 13/0000Z 34.3N 90.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 13/1200Z 35.3N 90.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 14/0000Z 35.9N 90.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Depression Seven Forecast Discussion Number 5
2024-09-12 16:49:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 12 2024 371 WTNT42 KNHC 121449 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 12 2024 Tropical Depression Seven looks more organized on satellite imagery this morning, with a compact circulation and a small curved band with some deep convection. Subjective and objective Dvorak numbers indicate the system is close to becoming a tropical storm. However, given the relatively small size of ongoing convection near the center, the initial intensity was conservatively held at 30 knots, or at the lower end of the estimates. The cyclone continues on a west-northwestward heading, and the general motion is expected to continue over the next 2-3 days. The forward speed should gradually slow as the subtropical ridge to the north of the system weakens. Track guidance diverges considerably early next week, related to uncertainties with an amplifying trough over the north-central Atlantic Ocean and another ridge centered northeast of the Leeward Islands. This track forecast stays close to the global model consensus and places less weight on the regional hurricane models which depict a considerably weaker and less organized system. This produces a track forecast that is slightly faster and to the left of the previous forecast. While environmental conditions are somewhat favorable for gradual strengthening, with low-moderate vertical wind shear and marginally warm SSTs, intensity guidance came in lower for this cycle. We show the system becoming a tropical storm in the next day, followed by the intensity only slowly increasing to 45 knots in the next five days. However, there is potential for greater strengthening beyond what is shown early next week as the cyclone will be in an environment characterized by lower shear, warmer SSTs around 28C, slightly more instability, but plentiful dry air aloft. The new forecast is a little lower than the previous one, but above the latest model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 17.8N 34.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 18.5N 36.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 19.2N 38.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 19.6N 40.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 19.7N 42.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 15/0000Z 19.8N 43.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 20.1N 44.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 20.6N 46.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 17/1200Z 21.0N 47.8W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Lamers/Bann/Blake
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Depression Seven (AT2/AL072024)
2024-09-12 16:48:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 12 the center of Seven was located near 17.8, -34.6 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics