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Tropical Depression Francine Public Advisory Number 16
2024-09-12 16:38:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 121438 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Francine Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 ...FRANCINE NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...HEAVY RAINFALL STILL SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.5N 90.1W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNE OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All Storm Surge Warnings have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Francine was located near latitude 32.5 North, longitude 90.1 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed through Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Francine will move over central and northern portions of Mississippi this afternoon and tonight and move into northeastern Arkansas by Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Francine is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone later today or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations from the Jackson area is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible for the next few hours over portions of central Mississippi and western Alabama. RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches across portions of Mississippi, eastern Arkansas, Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. Localized amounts of 12 inches are possible over portions of Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and Georgia. This rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html. STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated along the Gulf coast between eastern Louisiana and Alabama but will recede through this afternoon. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today across the Florida Panhandle, southern and central Alabama, and southwest Georgia. SURF: Swells generated by Francine should subside along the northern Gulf coast through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 400 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov. Rainfall forecasts for the United States can always be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php $$ Forecaster Beven
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-09-12 13:52:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 121152 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Francine, located inland over south-central Mississippi, and on Tropical Depression Seven, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92): A weak area of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Development of this system is not expected while it moves westward at around 10 mph over the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent. East of the Leeward Islands (AL94): Showers and thunderstorms have become a bit more concentrated in association with a small area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands. However, the proximity of dry air near the system is expected to limit additional development over the next couple of days. Environmental conditions are expected to become even less conducive over the weekend while the system moves slowly west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. Offshore the Southeastern U.S.: In a few days, a non-tropical area of low pressure could form along a residual frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. coastline. Thereafter, some subtropical or tropical development is possible during the early part of next week while the system drifts to the north or northwest. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Depression Francine (AT1/AL062024)
2024-09-12 13:42:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FRANCINE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... As of 7:00 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 the center of Francine was located near 31.9, -90.1 with movement NNE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics