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Tropical Depression Gordon Forecast Discussion Number 21
2024-09-16 16:47:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 16 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 161447 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Gordon Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 16 2024 Deep convection has persisted, since last night, mainly over the eastern portion of the circulation of Gordon. This activity is limited and not particularly well organized however, with the coldest cloud tops near -70 deg C. Based on a subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB and objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS, the advisory intensity is set at 30 kt. The cyclone has been moving generally westward over the past day or so while embedded in the flow on the south and southeast side of a mid-level ridge. During the next couple of days, the ridge is forecast to shift westward and weaken while a trough digs to the north and northeast of Gordon. This flow evolution, along with the interaction with a developing frontal cyclone about 10 degrees to the north of the tropical cyclone, should result in a turn toward the north in 36 hours or so. Some of the global models are showing a partial merger of Gordon with the frontal wave, but it appears likely that the system will remain distinct as a tropical cyclone throughout the forecast period. The official track forecast has been shifted somewhat to the east of the previous NHC prediction, and is near or west of the dynamical model consensus tracks. Westerly vertical wind shear over Gordon has abated, but the environment is still a bit dry. The dynamical guidance indicates a further decrease in shear with some increase in low- to mid-level humidities in a few days while the system remains over warm waters. Therefore, restrengthening is forecast to begin around 60 hours, in general agreement with the latest intensity model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 19.1N 48.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 19.2N 48.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 19.5N 49.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 19.9N 49.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 20.5N 49.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 19/0000Z 21.6N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 23.1N 47.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 26.0N 45.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 21/1200Z 28.0N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Depression Gordon (AT2/AL072024)
2024-09-16 16:47:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GORDON SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 16 the center of Gordon was located near 19.1, -48.1 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Gordon Public Advisory Number 21
2024-09-16 16:47:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 16 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 161447 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Gordon Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 16 2024 ...GORDON SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 48.1W ABOUT 985 MI...1580 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Gordon was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 48.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west-northwest and northwest at a slower forward speed is expected during the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the north and north-northeast by Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category: Transportation and Logistics