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Tropical Depression Gordon Forecast Discussion Number 23
2024-09-17 04:38:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 16 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 170238 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Gordon Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 16 2024 Gordon has become a little better organized this evening, with convection intensifying around the center-- a marked improvement from 24 hours ago. A pair of scatterometer passes from 00-01 UTC showed believable maximum winds of 25-30 kt, and 30 kt is chosen out of continuity from the last advisory. The depression has been creeping westward recently, estimated at about 3 kt. As mid-level high pressure builds to the northeast of the cyclone, the tropical cyclone should turn northward on Tuesday and move faster to the north-northeast for the next few days. A frontal wave currently seen about 10 degrees north of Gordon should also cause the cyclone to accelerate midweek as Gordon moves around that feature. The biggest change to the guidance this evening is that most are a bit faster, so the latest NHC prediction is trended in that way. Modest increases in low- to mid-level moisture around Gordon are shown in the model fields during the next couple of days. In combination with generally low shear during that time, these factors suggest that Gordon will be primed for a comeback, and the intensity guidance generally calls for it to become a tropical storm again around midweek. The low-shear conditions should last through late week, so the NHC forecast is nudged upward from 2-4 days, a touch below the model consensus. The shear could get rather prohibitive by day 5 so the intensity forecast is leveled off then, but considerable uncertainty exists at that time frame, with model guidance ranging from a depression to a category 2 hurricane. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 19.0N 48.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 19.3N 49.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 19.9N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 20.8N 48.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 22.3N 47.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 19/1200Z 24.2N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 25.8N 45.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 21/0000Z 27.5N 44.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 22/0000Z 29.5N 43.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Gordon Graphics
2024-09-17 04:37:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2024 02:37:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2024 02:37:26 GMT
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Tropical Depression Gordon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2024-09-17 04:36:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 17 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 170236 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GORDON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 0300 UTC TUE SEP 17 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Category: Transportation and Logistics