je.st
news
Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2024-09-12 16:59:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 121459 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 800 AM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 Geostationary satellite imagery indicates that the growing area of deep convection associated with the low pressure system off the coast of west-central Mexico has been quite persistent with increased banding noted over the past 6 to 12 h. The subjective intensity estimate from TAFB is T-2.0/30 kt, and on this basis, the system is upgraded to a 30-kt tropical depression. The initial motion is an uncertain northwest, or 325/6 kt. There is a fair amount of uncertainty in the initial position of the center, but it appears to be near the eastern edge of the convection, based on recent microwave imagery. A deep-layer trough located over the western United States will steer the cyclone toward the north-northwest over the next 24 to 36 h, bringing the system near the southern portion of Baja California Sur. After that time, the deep-layer trough is forecast to weaken, which should cause steering currents to weaken. This pattern will likely induce a slower motion toward the north, likely over the waters of the southern Gulf of California. The cyclone could approach the coast of northern Sinaloa or Sonora Saturday night into Sunday. The track forecast guidance is in good agreement for the first 48 h, but then starts to diverge a bit while the system is over the southern Gulf of California. The NHC track forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope. Due to some uncertainty in the track beyond that time, coastal residents of the Mexican states of Sinaloa and Sonora should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Tropical Depression Nine-E is currently located within an environment of warm ocean waters, low to moderate vertical wind shear, and within a fairly moist low- to mid-level troposphere. However, very dry air is evident on water vapor imagery to the northwest of the cyclone. These conditions are unlikely to change before the cyclone reaches Baja California Sur, and the NHC forecast shows the system becoming a tropical storm later today. Land interaction with the peninsula should cause some temporary weakening. However, water temperatures in the Gulf of California are quite warm, so some restrengthening is possible after the cyclone emerges back over water. The NHC intensity forecast is near the higher end of the intensity guidance. Beyond 60 h, westerly wind shear is expected to increase while the cyclone moves into a drier environment. Even if the system is still over water at that time, the cyclone is likely to begin weakening. The GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery products show the cyclone losing its convection around 72 h. The NHC forecast shows weakening at that time, with the system becoming a remnant low beyond 72 h. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Depression Nine-E will bring heavy rainfall to portions of western Mexico and southern Baja California through this weekend. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of the Baja California Sur on Friday, where Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 19.2N 107.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 20.4N 108.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 22.0N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 23.5N 110.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 25.0N 110.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 15/0000Z 26.1N 110.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 27.0N 110.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 28.6N 111.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category:Transportation and Logistics
LATEST NEWS
Summary for Tropical Depression Nine-E (EP4/EP092024)
2024-09-12 16:58:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OF MEXICO... As of 8:00 AM MST Thu Sep 12 the center of Nine-E was located near 19.2, -107.6 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Nine-E Public Advisory Number 1
2024-09-12 16:58:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 121458 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 800 AM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 107.6W ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the southern portion of Baja California Sur from Santa Fe southward on the west coast and La Paz southward on the east coast. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch along the east coast of Baja California Sur north of La Paz to San Evaristo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from La Paz southward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico north of La Paz to San Evaristo A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Tropical Depression Nine-E. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 107.6 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through early Friday, followed by a turn toward the north and a slight decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone should pass near or over Baja California Sur Friday or Friday night before emerging over the southern Gulf of California late Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours, and the depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm later today, with some slight additional strengthening possible before the system reaches the southern Baja California peninsula. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nine-E is expected to produce 4-6 inches of rain with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches across the coastal areas of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through early Friday. From Friday through Sunday, the system is forecast to produce 4-6 inches of rain, with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches, across southern Baja California. For northwest coastal Sinaloa, the system may produce between 6-8 inches of rain with localized higher amounts up to 12 inches. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula within the warning area by early Friday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Friday night or early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Depression Nine-E will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico during the next day or so, and will spread northward along the coasts of the southern Baja California Peninsula and mainland Mexico beginning tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM MST. Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics