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Tropical Depression Seven Forecast Discussion Number 7
2024-09-13 04:53:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 12 2024 491 WTNT42 KNHC 130253 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 12 2024 The depression has been holding steady this evening. After a lull in the convective activity which exposed the low-level circulation, thunderstorms have been building steadily to the east of the center. Unfortunately, the scatterometer pass missed the core of the system once again. The initial intensity remains at 30 kt, close to the subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. A subtropical ridge to the north of the depression is steering the system west-northwestward at about 14 kt. As the ridge weakens during the next few days, the cyclone should gradually slow and turn more westward. There is still a large spread in the track guidance envelope early next week, which seems partially related to the depth of the vortex. The ECMWF solution shows a much stronger system that turns the cyclone to the north sooner compared to the GFS and GFS-based regional models showing a weaker system that moves faster and stays in the low-level westerly flow. The latest NHC track forecast has been nudged a little to the south and lies between the previous prediction and the consensus aids. Marginal environmental conditions appear to be preventing the depression from making any appreciable intensity changes. Visible satellite imagery from earlier today showed a band of Saharan dust wrapping around the northern semicircle of the circulation. The intensity guidance has shifted downward again this cycle, with many models showing a steady-to-weakening system over the next 3-4 days. By the end of the forecast period, there is quite a bit of spread in the intensity guidance as noted earlier. The latest NHC intensity forecast has been decreased slightly but remains on the high side of the various aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 18.7N 37.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 19.1N 38.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 19.4N 40.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 19.7N 42.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 19.7N 44.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 15/1200Z 19.7N 45.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 19.6N 47.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 19.8N 49.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 20.5N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Depression Seven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2024-09-13 04:53:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 549 FONT12 KNHC 130252 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 0300 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Depression Seven (AT2/AL072024)
2024-09-13 04:53:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION HOLDING STEADY OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 12 the center of Seven was located near 18.7, -37.0 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics