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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2024-09-22 22:50:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 222049 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 98.7W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 98.7W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 98.7W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 14.0N 98.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.4N 98.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.8N 97.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 10SE 10SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.0N 96.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.3N 95.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.1N 94.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 17.1N 92.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 98.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 23/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-09-22 19:54:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
956 ABNT20 KNHC 221754 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL96): Showers and thunderstorms have diminished in association with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda. Development of this system is not expected due to dry air and increasing upper-level winds during the next couple of days while the low moves generally northward at 5 to 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America are associated with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear favorable for development of this system, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form during the next few days while moving northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next several days. Interests in the northwestern Caribbean, Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and western Cuba should closely monitor the progress of this feature. Later this week, the system is forecast to move generally northward across the Gulf of Mexico, and interests along the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast should also monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is expected to move westward during the next several days. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the middle to latter part of the week while the wave moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-09-22 19:51:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 221751 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 22 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP94): Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in association with an area of low pressure located less than 200 miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form during the next day or two while the system drifts northeastward or northward toward the coast of southern Mexico. Interests in southern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system, as watches or warnings could be required later today or tonight. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. Central Portion of the East Pacific: A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles west-southwest of southwestern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some slow development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the middle part of the week while the system moves slowly eastward or northeastward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics