je.st
news
Tropical Storm Beryl Forecast Discussion Number 2
2024-06-29 04:41:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Jun 28 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 290241 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 PM AST Fri Jun 28 2024 Since becoming a depression earlier this afternoon, deep convection has continued to burst with infrared satellite imagery depicting cold cloud tops down to -80C. The center of circulation remains on the eastern side of the deep convection, but the system is gradually becoming better organized with banding features and better vertical alignment. Intensity estimates have increased this cycle with subjective Dvorak estimates of T2.0/T2.5 from SAB and TAFB, respectively. Objective Dvorak estimates from UW-CIMSS are around 34-36 kt as well. Using a blend of these estimates, the initial intensity for this advisory is set to 35 kt, and the depression has strengthened into Tropical Storm Beryl. Tropical Storm Beryl is one of only a few storms in history that have formed over the central or eastern tropical Atlantic this early in the year. Tropical Storm Beryl is moving westward at 16 kt, steered by a strong subtropical ridge to the north. This should keep Beryl moving swiftly westward to west-northwestward during the next few days, with the model guidance remains tightly clustered as the system moves towards the Windward Islands. There is a little more spread in the model guidance beyond day 3, when the system nears a weakness in the subtropical ridge. The NHC track forecast lies near the consensus aids near the middle of the guidance envelope, and is very similar to the previous forecast track. Based on this forecast, the system is expected to move across the Windward Islands Sunday night and Monday and track across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea through the middle of next week. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions, atypical for this time of year, are fairly favorable for strengthening the next few days with warm sea surface temperatures, plenty of moisture, and low vertical wind shear. Thus, the NHC intensity forecast calls for steady strengthening and shows the system becoming a hurricane before it reaches the Windward Islands. The NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous advisory. It should be noted that some of the model guidance is still quite aggressive and a fair amount are even higher than the official forecast. Some hurricane regional models and consensus aids show the system becoming a major hurricane prior to reaching the Windward Islands. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Storm Beryl is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands late Sunday night or Monday, bringing a risk of heavy rainfall, hurricane-force winds, and dangerous storm surge and waves. 2. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be required for portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands early Saturday. 3. Interests in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the progress of this system. Users are reminded that there is large uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and to not focus on the specific details of the track or intensity forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 9.3N 43.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 9.7N 46.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 10.4N 49.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 11.0N 53.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 11.7N 56.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 01/1200Z 12.5N 60.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 13.6N 63.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 16.0N 71.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 04/0000Z 17.8N 77.8W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category:Transportation and Logistics
LATEST NEWS
Summary for Tropical Storm Beryl (AT2/AL022024)
2024-06-29 04:41:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM BERYL... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Jun 28 the center of Beryl was located near 9.3, -43.6 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Beryl Public Advisory Number 2
2024-06-29 04:41:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Jun 28 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 290240 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 PM AST Fri Jun 28 2024 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM BERYL... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.3N 43.6W ABOUT 1110 MI...1785 KM ESE OF BARBADOS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the progress of this system. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be required for portions of the area early Saturday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located near latitude 9.3 North, longitude 43.6 West. Beryl is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A relatively quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast, and Beryl is expected to become a hurricane in a couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands. This rainfall may produce localized flooding in vulnerable areas. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to reach the Windward and southern Leeward Islands by late Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category: Transportation and Logistics