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Tropical Storm Beryl Forecast Discussion Number 29
2024-07-05 22:46:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 732 WTNT42 KNHC 052045 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 400 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Beryl has weakened below hurricane strength while crossing the northern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite imagery shows that the cloud tops in the central convection have warmed except for one small area just northeast of the center, and radar data from Cancun shows that the rainbands near the center have become less organized. The initial intensity is reduced to a somewhat uncertain 55 kt, as there is little in the way of wind data from the inner core. The initial motion is now 295/13 kt. There is little change in the philosophy or the meteorology of the track forecast. For the next 12 h or so, Beryl should be steered generally west-northwestward by the western portion of the subtropical ridge over the southeastern United States. After that, a turn toward the northwest is likely as the storm moves towards a break in the ridge caused by a combination of a trough in the mid-latitude westerlies over the central United States and an upper-level trough moving westward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This motion should bring the center near the western Gulf coast in about 72 h. Subsequently, a northward motion through the break appears likely. The track guidance has shifted eastward since the previous advisory, with the most notable change being the ECMWF model, which is now on the eastern side of the guidance envelope. The new forecast track is shifted east of the previous track, but it still lies to the west of the various consensus models. Therefore, additional adjustments of the forecast track could be necessary tonight. Beryl will likely weaken a little more before the center emerges over the Gulf of Mexico this evening. After that, it could take 12-24 h for the cyclone's structure to recover over the Gulf of Mexico before re-intensification begins in earnest, and during this time the large-scale models suggest continued southwesterly shear. Based on this and the overall trend of the intensity guidance, the new forecast calls for gradual strengthening to start around 24 h, and the first part of this forecast could be a bit generous. However, the upper-level winds become more favorable as the cyclone approaches the western Gulf coast after 36 h, with decreasing shear and increasing upper-level divergence. This combination should allow a faster rate of strengthening. The new intensity forecast now calls for an 80-kt intensity at landfall in best agreement with the HWRF, HAFS-B, and HMON models, and this could be conservative if Beryl stays over water longer than currently forecast. Users are reminded that the average NHC track error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and it remains too soon to pinpoint where the greatest impacts will be. Key Messages: 1. There is an increasing risk of damaging hurricane-force winds and life-threatening storm surge in portions of northeastern Mexico and the lower and middle Texas Coast late Sunday and Monday where Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches have been issued. Additional watches may be required tonight or early Saturday. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Flash and urban flooding are possible across portions of the Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas from Sunday through the middle of next week. 3. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through the weekend across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed warning flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials before venturing into the water. 4. Strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall will continue over northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 21.2N 89.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 12H 06/0600Z 22.0N 91.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 06/1800Z 23.2N 93.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 24.3N 94.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 25.3N 95.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 08/0600Z 26.5N 96.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 27.8N 97.3W 80 KT 90 MPH...AT COAST 96H 09/1800Z 30.5N 97.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 10/1800Z 32.5N 95.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven
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