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Tropical Storm Cosme Forecast Discussion Number 7
2025-06-10 04:31:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM MST Mon Jun 09 2025 854 WTPZ43 KNHC 100231 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025 800 PM MST Mon Jun 09 2025 Cosme remains at the threshold of hurricane strength. Convection continues to be potent south and east of the center, though it is weak on the northwestern side. Unfortunately there haven't been any recent microwave passes to assess the inner-core structure. Since the latest blend of objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates remains near 60 kt, that value will be kept as the initial wind speed. Cosme is moving along a thermal ridge in the SSTs, and it still could become a hurricane overnight before reaching less favorable conditions tomorrow morning. Steady or rapid weakening is probable by late Tuesday due to a combination of decreasing SSTs and intrusions of dry/stable air. The tropical cyclone should lose all convection early on Wednesday and become a remnant low between 36 and 48 h. No significant changes were made on this advisory to the intensity forecast. The storm has slowed down, only moving northwestward at 3 kt, and this general motion should continue through tonight. After that time, a turn to the north-northeast is expected as Cosme moves toward a weakness left behind by Hurricane Barbara to its northeast. The NHC track forecast is basically an update of the previous one, near or a smidge left of the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 15.2N 114.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 15.5N 114.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 15.9N 114.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 16.9N 113.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 18.2N 113.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/1200Z 19.3N 113.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake [ more ]
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