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Tropical Storm Dalila Forecast Advisory Number 8
2025-06-14 16:34:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 14 2025 128 WTPZ24 KNHC 141434 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025 1500 UTC SAT JUN 14 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 104.8W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT.......200NE 120SE 60SW 120NW. 4 M SEAS....150NE 300SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 104.8W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 104.3W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.3N 106.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...180NE 100SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.9N 108.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.1N 110.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.1N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.2N 113.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.2N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 104.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 14/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY [ more ]
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2025-06-14 13:49:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
715 ABPZ20 KNHC 141148TWOEP Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL500 AM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Dalila, located in the eastern Pacific basin off the coast of southwestern Mexico.Offshore of Central America and Southeastern Mexico:A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, has formed just off the Pacific coast of Costa Rica and is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of the low, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week while moving westward or west-northwestward just offshore the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.$$Forecaster Berg [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Dalila Public Advisory Number 7a
2025-06-14 13:46:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 600 AM CST Sat Jun 14 2025 070 WTPZ34 KNHC 141144 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dalila Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 600 AM CST Sat Jun 14 2025 ...OUTER BANDS OF DALILA IMPACTING SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 104.3W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM WSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan De Galeana to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 104.3 West. Dalila is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A gradual west-northwest to westward turn is expected later today into Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Dalila is forecast to move parallel to, but offshore of, the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected today. A weakening trend is forecast to begin on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Dalila can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are expected across portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoac�n, and Colima through Monday morning, with localized amounts up to 9 inches near the coast. This rainfall will lead to areas of flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Dalila, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area today. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics