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Tropical Storm Francine Public Advisory Number 15
2024-09-12 10:47:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 120847 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Francine Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 ...FRANCINE MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.9N 90.1W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM N OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Warning west of Grand Isle, Louisiana has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border * Lake Maurepas * Lake Pontchartrain A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, beginning shortly for the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Francine was located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 90.1 West. Francine is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast and north is expected during the next day or so, with some decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Francine will move over central and northern portions of Mississippi through early Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Francine is expected to become a tropical depression this morning and degenerate to a post-tropical cyclone today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. A National Ocean Service weather station at Southwest Pass, Louisiana recently reported a wind gust of 39 mph (63 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected to continue in portions of the warning area for the next few hours. RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches across portions of Mississippi, eastern Arkansas, Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle. Localized amounts up to 10 inches are possible within rain bands over portions of central and northern Alabama and over the Florida Panhandle. This rainfall could lead to locally considerable flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to Ocean Springs, MS...4-6 ft Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...3-5 ft Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today, mainly in the morning and afternoon from the Florida Panhandle to north-central Alabama. SURF: Swells generated by Francine will continue to affect much of the northern Gulf coast through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Francine Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2024-09-12 10:47:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2024 08:47:07 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Seven Forecast Discussion Number 4
2024-09-12 10:46:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 12 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 120846 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 500 AM AST Thu Sep 12 2024 The system has changed little in organization overnight, with limited deep convection and slight banding features. An AMSR-2 microwave image suggested that the circulation was still somewhat broad since the cloud bands were not very tightly curved. Subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were T2.5/35 kt and T2.0/30 kt, respectively. The advisory intensity is held at 30 kt given the depression's lack of increased organization. This is also in agreement with a DMINT objective intensity estimate from UW-CIMSS based on the AMSR data. The cyclone continues on a west-northwestward heading with an estimated motion of 290/15 kt. A gradually weakening ridge over the eastern subtropical Atlantic should maintain this general motion with decreasing forward speed over the next 2-3 days. Later in the forecast period, an amplifying trough is expected to erode the ridge, which should cause the cyclone to turn at least a little to the right. The track guidance becomes somewhat divergent in the 4- to 5-day time frame, but is in overall agreement on a rather slow motion. The official track forecast is similar to the previous NHC prediction and close to the various dynamical model consensus solutions. Environmental conditions seem fairly conducive for at least gradual strengthening during the next few days, with low- to moderate-vertical wind shear and marginally warm SSTs. However, the models are not very bullish on strengthening until near the end of the forecast period. This may be due to a somewhat stable air mass over the eastern Atlantic. The official intensity forecast is similar to the Decay-SHIPS model guidance through 72 hours, but shows no change after that time given the uncertainties in intensity prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 17.3N 33.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 18.1N 34.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 18.9N 37.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 19.4N 39.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 19.7N 41.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 14/1800Z 19.9N 42.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 20.0N 43.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 20.7N 45.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 17/0600Z 21.2N 47.1W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category: Transportation and Logistics