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Tropical Storm Helene Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map

2024-09-24 17:55:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 15:55:23 GMT


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Tropical Storm Helene Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics

2024-09-24 17:41:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 15:41:52 GMT


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Tropical Storm John Forecast Discussion Number 9

2024-09-24 17:06:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM CST Tue Sep 24 2024 628 WTPZ45 KNHC 241435 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 900 AM CST Tue Sep 24 2024 John has been rapidly weakening since it moved inland last night, and the maximum sustained winds are now estimated to be around 35 kt. The storm still has a well-defined mid-level center, but surface observations suggest that the low-level circulation is less defined and could be opening into a trough. A strong band of thunderstorms to the east of the estimated center continues to produce heavy rains across portions of southern Mexico. There is quite a bit of uncertainty in the future of John. One possibility is that the storm dissipates over Mexico, with a trough or low reforming back offshore and lingering in that location for much of the rest of the week. The other possibility is that John itself hangs on as a tropical depression or storm. For now, the official forecast generally follows the previous scenario and shows John weakening to a tropical depression later today and lingering near the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico until the end of the week. It is hoped that additional data and model runs later today will help provide some clarity on the system's future. Even though the future of John is uncertain, there is high confidence that heavy rains will continue in portions of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. See the Key Messages below for additional information on that hazard. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Slow-moving John will continue to bring very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southern and southwestern Mexico through the upcoming week. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast and along the up-slope portion of areas of higher terrain. 2. John could still produce tropical storm conditions for the next couple of hours in the tropical storm warning area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 17.7N 100.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 25/0000Z 17.7N 101.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 25/1200Z 17.3N 101.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 26/0000Z 17.1N 100.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 17.4N 100.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 27/0000Z 17.7N 100.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi


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