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Tropical Storm Helene Public Advisory Number 6
2024-09-24 22:58:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 242057 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 500 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA... ...HELENE'S LARGE SIZE WILL LIKELY CAUSE AN EXTENSIVE AREA TO BE AFFECTED BY THE STORM'S HAZARDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 84.7W ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Flamingo to Indian Pass, Florida, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. A Hurricane Warning has been issued from Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida. The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning from Cabo Catoche to Tulum. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Middle Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Gulf coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay, and west of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County Line. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the east coasts of Florida and Georgia from the Palm Beach/Martin County Line northward to the Savannah River, and for Lake Okeechobee. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass southward to Flamingo * Tampa Bay * Charlotte Harbor A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida * Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban province of Pinar del Rio * Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Lower and Middle Florida Keys west of the Channel 5 Bridge * Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay * Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico * Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Lake Okeechobee * Palm Beach/Martin County Line northward to the Savannah River A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Additional watches or warnings may be required for portions of Florida and the southeastern United States tonight or on Wednesday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 84.7 West. Helene is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected tonight, followed by a general northward motion beginning on Wednesday and continuing through Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Helene will pass near the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday, move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday, and reach the Big Bend coast of Florida late Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to become a hurricane on Wednesday. The storm is forecast to rapidly strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and become a major hurricane on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) to the east of the center. Data from NOAA buoy 42056 indicate that the minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands with isolated totals around 12 inches. Over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 4 to 6 inches of rain are expected with isolated totals over 8 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding. Over the Southeastern U.S., Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated totals around 12 inches. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with areas of significant river flooding likely, including the risk of landslides in areas of steep terrain in the southern Appalachians. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Ochlockonee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-10 ft Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...5-10 ft Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft Tampa Bay...5-8 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in Mexico on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are expected within the U.S. hurricane warning area late Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the tropical storm warning area Florida on Wednesday and spread northward through Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area beginning Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday and Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Helene Forecast Advisory Number 6
2024-09-24 22:57:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 242057 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024 2100 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 84.7W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 84.7W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 84.6W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 20.4N 86.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...210NE 210SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 21.7N 86.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...240NE 270SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 23.7N 86.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...270NE 240SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 27.0N 84.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 55SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 90SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...210NE 240SE 140SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 31.5N 84.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 240SE 70SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 35.5N 84.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 38.2N 89.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 84.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 25/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-09-24 19:55:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 241754 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 24 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on Tropical Storm John, dissipated inland over southern Mexico. Offshore of Southern Mexico: A trough of low pressure, partially associated with the remnants of John, is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms along the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some development of this system and a tropical depression could form in the next couple of days or so, depending on if it stays over water. Interests in southern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rainfall and the potential for flash flooding and mudslides over portions of southern Mexico this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics