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Tropical Storm Helene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2024-09-24 22:58:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 242057 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024 2100 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) X(26) X(26) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) X(22) X(22) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) X(20) X(20) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) X(17) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 41(48) X(48) X(48) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 42(45) X(45) X(45) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 39(48) X(48) X(48) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 27(31) 1(32) X(32) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 39(52) X(52) X(52) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) X(21) X(21) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 24(41) 1(42) X(42) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 11(23) X(23) X(23) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 14(31) X(31) X(31) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 14(32) X(32) X(32) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 7(22) X(22) X(22) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 13(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) KEY WEST FL 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 19(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 10(10) 36(46) 3(49) X(49) X(49) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 23(27) 3(30) X(30) X(30) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 57(64) 6(70) X(70) X(70) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 5(22) X(22) X(22) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 53(56) 18(74) X(74) X(74) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 13(26) X(26) X(26) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 43(43) 40(83) X(83) X(83) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 35(44) X(44) X(44) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) X(19) X(19) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 60(69) X(69) X(69) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) X(28) X(28) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 60(73) X(73) X(73) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) X(34) X(34) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 31(31) 47(78) X(78) X(78) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 42(49) X(49) X(49) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) X(24) X(24) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 48(49) 35(84) X(84) X(84) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 42(59) X(59) X(59) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 27(33) X(33) X(33) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 21(21) 39(60) X(60) X(60) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) X(29) X(29) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) X(21) X(21) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 50(53) X(53) X(53) ALBANY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) X(31) X(31) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MACON GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) X(37) X(37) MACON GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 34(37) X(37) X(37) DOTHAN AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) X(12) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 11(31) X(31) X(31) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) MERIDA MX 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COZUMEL MX 34 60 26(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) COZUMEL MX 50 5 12(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) BELIZE CITY 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUANAJA 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 73 16(89) 5(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 1 12(13) 11(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HAVANA 34 1 4( 5) 6(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ISLE OF PINES 34 21 8(29) 7(36) 3(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND CAYMAN 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Helene Forecast Advisory Number 6
2024-09-24 22:57:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 242057 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024 2100 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 84.7W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 84.7W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 84.6W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 20.4N 86.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...210NE 210SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 21.7N 86.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...240NE 270SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 23.7N 86.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...270NE 240SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 27.0N 84.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 55SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 90SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...210NE 240SE 140SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 31.5N 84.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 240SE 70SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 35.5N 84.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 38.2N 89.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 84.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 25/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-09-24 19:55:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 241754 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 24 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on Tropical Storm John, dissipated inland over southern Mexico. Offshore of Southern Mexico: A trough of low pressure, partially associated with the remnants of John, is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms along the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some development of this system and a tropical depression could form in the next couple of days or so, depending on if it stays over water. Interests in southern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rainfall and the potential for flash flooding and mudslides over portions of southern Mexico this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics