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Tropical Storm Ileana Public Advisory Number 8
2024-09-14 10:52:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM MST Sat Sep 14 2024 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 140852 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ileana Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 200 AM MST Sat Sep 14 2024 ...ILEANA CONTINUES NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE COASTS OF NORTHERN SINALOA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN SONORA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.3N 109.2W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM E OF LA PAZ MEXICO ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning along the coast of mainland Mexico from Altata to Huatabampito, and has discontinued all watches and warnings for Baja California Sur. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Altata to Huatabampito Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Ileana. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 109.2 West. Ileana is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A slower motion toward the north-northwest and northwest is expected tonight and on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Ileana will move near or over the coasts of northern Sinaloa and southern Sonora later today, and then move over the Gulf of California roughly parallel to the coast on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast to begin later this afternoon or evening, and Ileana is likely to degenerate into a remnant low tonight. The remnant low is expected to dissipate by early Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ileana is expected to bring rainfall of 6 to 8 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 12 inches, across northwest coastal Sinaloa through this weekend. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Ileana, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the warning area in northern Sinaloa and southern Sonora later this morning and afternoon. SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will affect portions of the Gulf of California coasts of Sinaloa, southern Sonora, and southern Baja California Sur during the next day or so. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 500 AM MST. Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Berg
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Ileana Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2024-09-14 10:52:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 140852 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024 0900 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GUAYMAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 6 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Ileana Forecast Advisory Number 8
2024-09-14 10:51:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 140851 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024 0900 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 109.2W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 109.2W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 109.2W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 25.1N 109.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 25.9N 109.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 26.6N 110.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.4N 111.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N 109.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 14/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Category: Transportation and Logistics