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Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Discussion Number 16
2024-09-29 22:36:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM GMT Sun Sep 29 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 292035 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102024 900 PM GMT Sun Sep 29 2024 The increasingly hostile sea surface temperatures, strong vertical wind shear, and dry air wrapping around the southern half of Isaac has weakened the cyclone. The last few visible stallite images before sundown suggest that the vortex could be tilted, with the low-level center displaced southwest of the upper-level vortex. Additionally, deep convection has become less symmetric since the last advisory, with convection in the southern semicircle likely being cut off by the aformentioned dry air. This structure is indicative of a progressing extratropical transition, as Isaac continues to interact with a baroclinic frontal zone to its northeast. The initial intensity is set to 60 kt for this advisory, which is a blend of the subjective and objective satellite classifications. Tropical Storm Isaac is forecast to continue its extratropical transition and become a fully extratropical cyclone on Monday. This is in agreement with model-diagnosed thermodynamics that maintain a warm core until this time, in addition to simulated IR satellite data from the GFS and ECMWF models. The intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast and shows a steady decrease in maximum sustained winds through the forecast period. The forward motion of the cyclone continues to be northeastward (050/10 kt). This general motion is forecast to continue for the next day or so as Isaac continues to be steered by a mid-level trough to its west. This mid-level trough will steer Isaac towards the north-northeast beyond 36 hr. Beyond 96 hr, global model data indicates Isaac will be absorbed by a more potent extratropical cyclone just southeast of Iceland. The track forecast is again adjusted eastward from the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 43.8N 34.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 44.6N 32.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 45.8N 28.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 01/0600Z 47.4N 25.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 01/1800Z 49.3N 24.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 02/0600Z 51.4N 23.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 02/1800Z 53.1N 22.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 03/1800Z 57.9N 17.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Mahoney/Blake
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Isaac Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2024-09-29 22:35:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 29 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 292035 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102024 2100 UTC SUN SEP 29 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 43.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER MAHONEY/BLAKE
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Storm Isaac (AT5/AL102024)
2024-09-29 22:35:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LARGE SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF IMPACTING THE AZORES... As of 9:00 PM GMT Sun Sep 29 the center of Isaac was located near 43.8, -34.7 with movement NE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 973 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics