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Tropical Storm John Public Advisory Number 3A
2024-09-23 13:54:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 600 AM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 231154 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm John Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 600 AM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 ...JOHN QUICKLY STRENGTHENING AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 98.5W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM WSW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the coast of Mexico from Punta Maldonado to Bahias de Huatulco. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Mexico from east of Bahias de Huatulco to Salina Cruz. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to Bahias de Huatulco A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Bahias de Huatulco to Salina Cruz A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 h. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 98.5 West. John is moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow motion to the north-northeast or northeast is expected for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to approach the southern coast of Mexico during the next day or two and move inland on Tuesday or Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. John is forecast to strengthen as it approaches the coast of southern Mexico, and the chances of it becoming a hurricane before landfall are increasing. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for John can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml RAINFALL: Through Thursday, John is expected to produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches across the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the Oaxaca coast to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain with isolated totals near 30 inches can be expected through Thursday. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep10.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area early Tuesday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the tropical storm warning area on Tuesday. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to begin to affect the coast of southern Mexico later today, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents much of the week. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-09-23 13:43:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 231143 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Mon Sep 23 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm John, located just south of southern Mexico. Central Portion of the East Pacific: A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles west-southwest of southwestern Mexico is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions only appear marginally favorable for gradual development of this system while it moves slowly eastward to the south of the coast of Mexico through the middle of this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm John are issued under WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm John are issued under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-09-23 13:32:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 231132 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico (AL97): Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in association with a broad area of low pressure located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions appear favorable for further development of this system. A tropical depression or storm is likely to form within the next day or two as the system moves northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, where additional development is expected. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next several days. Interests in the northwestern Caribbean, the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and western Cuba should closely monitor the progress of this system, as watches or warnings will likely be required later this morning for portions of these areas. Later this week, the system is forecast to move generally northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and interests along the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast should also closely monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave located between western Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to latter part of this week while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category: Transportation and Logistics